1.Cov qauv siv hlau txuas ntxiv ua kom zoo dua qub, qhov kev faib ua feem ntawm cov hlau siv hauv kev lag luam raug nce ntxiv, thiab Tuam Tshoj txoj kev lag luam steel qhia tau hais tias muaj zog thiab tawv.
2. Tag nrho cov steel noj tau mus txog lub ncov, tag nrho cov poob yog ib qho inevitable trend.From ceev mus rau zoo, los ntawm tag nrho cov ntim mus rau ntau yam, kev hloov nyob rau hauv kev tsom xam yog nyob rau hauv txoj kev.
3. Kev loj hlob zoo yog qhov yuav tsum tau muaj rau kev txhim kho zoo. Nws yog ib qho tsim nyog yuav tsum xav txog kev nthuav qhia cov kev txwv cov pa roj carbon monoxide thiab rov ntsuas qhov ua tau zoo ntawm 'capacity' kev tswj hwm.
4. Tsis muaj teeb meem ntau npaum li cas, kev siv zog txhawb nqa cov khoom siv rov ua dua tshiab yog qhov kev xaiv thawj zaug.
5. Cov yam ntxwv zoo heev ntawm cov khoom siv hlau (tus nqi ua haujlwm thiab cov yam ntxwv rov ua dua tshiab) nyob deb ntawm kev tsim thiab siv tag nrho, thiab qhov chaw ntawm 'khoom siv thiab hloov khoom siv' yog qhov kawg thiab muaj txoj hauv kev ntev mus.
Nws hais tias kev lag luam steel yuav tsum tsom mus rau lub luag haujlwm tseem ceeb: txhawm rau txhim kho kev lag luam hauv paus peev xwm thiab qib kev lag luam. Ua raws li ob txoj kev loj hlob loj: kev loj hlob ntsuab thiab kev tsim khoom ntse. Peb yuav tsom mus rau kev daws qhov mob cov ntsiab lus ntawm peb qhov kev lag luam loj: tswj kev tsim muaj peev xwm nthuav dav, txhawb kev lag luam concentration, thiab ua kom muaj kev ruaj ntseg. Txuas ntxiv mus txhawb kev thoob ntiaj teb kev lag luam ntawm Tuam Tshoj txoj kev lag luam steel
Tam sim no, kev lag luam macro ntsib plaub 'pass pressure': ua ntej, seb nws puas tuaj yeem tshem tawm ntawm kev vam khom ntawm vaj tse; thib ob, seb nws puas tuaj yeem tshem tawm qhov kev txwv ntawm kev poob qis hauv kev lag luam (kev tsim khoom); thib peb, qhov teeb meem ntawm kev noj tsis txaus yuav ua rau ntev; thib plaub, qhov kev sib tw loj sab nraud: qhov kev tiv thaiv los ntawm cov txheej txheem sab nraud tuaj yeem hloov kho txhua lub sijhawm.
'Pass breakthrough' yuav tsum ua peb yam tseem ceeb: thawj yog kom ceev cov kev tsim kho ntawm ib tug tshiab txoj kev loj hlob qauv (kom ceev lub realization ntawm high-thev naus laus zis science thiab technology thiab ceev kev tsim kho ntawm niaj hnub industrial system); Qhov thib ob yog tsom rau kev nthuav dav kev thov hauv tsev, feem ntau nthuav kev noj; qhov thib peb yog kev txiav txim siab kom tsis txhob muaj vaj tse npuas, tab sis kom nrawm rau kev tshem tawm ntawm kev vam khom ntawm vaj tse. Nws tau hais tias nws muaj peev xwm loj, kev loj hlob mus ntev thiab muaj zog tiv taus.
Saib mus rau yav tom ntej, nws ntseeg tias peb yuav tsum ua raws li kev sib koom ua ke ntawm cov organic sib txuas ntawm cov cai luv luv thiab cov kev cai mus sij hawm ntev, xyuam xim rau lub sijhawm ntev, hloov cov qauv, kho cov qauv, txhim kho kom zoo, nce efficiency, 'txhawb kev ruaj ntseg nrog kev vam meej', nrhiav kev ruaj ntseg hauv kev nce qib thiab nce, thiab daws cov kev pheej hmoo ntawm kev nce qib thiab nce.
Txhawm rau tiv thaiv kev poob qis ntawm kev lag luam thiab tswj kev ua haujlwm ruaj khov ntawm kev lag luam, peb yuav tsum ntxiv dag zog rau peb txoj haujlwm los ntawm plaub yam: Ua ntej, unswervingly ua raws li txoj kev loj hlob zoo. Cov tuam txhab hlau thiab hlau yuav tsum tau ua cov kev ntsuas tshiab raws li kev ua haujlwm ua ntej thiab qhia cov kev ua haujlwm tshiab, hloov cov peev txheej zoo rau hauv kev lag luam zoo, thiab hloov tus kheej zoo rau txhua qhov zoo. Thib ob, ntxiv dag zog rau kev sib koom ua ke, txo cov ntim sab hauv, thiab ua kom tsis muaj zog ntawm kev lag luam tus kheej kev qhuab qhia thiab kev sib koom ua ke kev loj hlob. Cov tuam txhab lag luam sab saum toj hauv kev lag luam hlau thiab hlau yuav tsum ua lub luag haujlwm ua piv txwv, ntxiv dag zog rau kev lag luam tus kheej kev qhuab qhia thiab kev sib koom ua lag luam, sib koom ua ke ua kom zoo dua cov khoom lag luam thiab kev xav tau, thiab sib zog ua kom tau txais cov khoom siv tau yooj yim. Thib peb, ntxiv dag zog rau kev pab cuam muaj peev xwm ntawm cov khoom siv tswv yim, thiab tsim kom muaj cov lus teb ceev ceev, ruaj khov thiab muaj txiaj ntsig steel cov saw hlau. Plaub, ntxiv dag zog rau kev tsim kho tshiab thiab kev tshawb fawb thiab thev naus laus zis, thiab ua raws li txoj kev ntsuab, kev txuag hluav taws xob thiab kev tiv thaiv ib puag ncig.
Nws tau hu rau cov tuam txhab hlau thiab hlau kom nquag teb rau kev hu xov tooj, txhawb kev lag luam tus kheej kev qhuab qhia, txo qis kev sib tw tsis sib haum thiab tsis tseem ceeb hemorrhagic ntau lawm, sib sau ua ke cov tub ntxhais kev sib tw ntawm cov khoom siv thev naus laus zis, ua kom cov kev hloov pauv mus rau high-end, ntsuab, muaj txiaj ntsig thiab ntse, thiab khov kho txoj kev loj hlob zoo.
Kev tshuaj xyuas ntawm kev lag luam steel hauv xyoo 2023 tau hais tias cov nqi steel txhua xyoo txuas ntxiv mus poob ntaiv, cov khoom siv raw muaj zog dua steel, cov txiaj ntsig kev lag luam rau qhov qis tshiab.
Saib ua ntej rau xyoo 2024, hais txog kev siv khoom txawv teb chaws, nws xav tias kev siv hlau txawv teb chaws yuav qeeb, ua rau Tuam Tshoj qhov chaw xa tawm raug txwv, thiab lub teb chaws hlau xa tawm poob qis xyoo-rau-xyoo.
Nyob rau hauv cov nqe lus ntawm domestic ib puag ncig, Tuam Tshoj tus GDP yuav tsum loj hlob los ntawm 5.0% xyoo nyob rau hauv lub xyoo. Kev nqis peev hauv cov cuab tam ruaj khov tau nce los ntawm 4.5%, kev tsim vaj tsev av los ntawm 6%, kev tsim khoom los ntawm 6.8% thiab kev tsim kho vaj tsev los ntawm 7.0%.
Kev noj haus hauv tsev, Tuam Tshoj txoj kev siv hlau yuav tsum tau ua raws li kev sib tw xyoo-rau-xyoo, ntau yam qauv txuas ntxiv txhim kho thiab kho. Qhov kev hloov pauv loj tshaj plaws ntawm kev lag luam tseem yog cov khoom siv, cov khoom siv txiav txim siab cov txiaj ntsig, tab sis kuj txiav txim siab tag nrho cov nqi ntawm cov hlau hauv 2024. Raws li qhov tsis muaj kev txhawb nqa ntxiv ntawm kev thov hauv tsev thiab txawv teb chaws, cov khoom nruab nrab txo tau maj mam txhim kho kev lag luam.
Nyob rau hauv cov nqe lus ntawm raw cov ntaub ntawv, lub ntiaj teb no hlau ore ntau lawm yuav tsum nce los ntawm 62 lab tons nyob rau hauv lub xyoo, noj nce los ntawm 26 lab tons, hlau ore mov yog me ntsis xoob; kev loj hlob ntawm coking thee ntau lawm yog qeeb thiab cov khoom tseem xoob; coke ntau lawm yog tsis tu ncua siab, nqi tsis muaj zog; cov khoom seem nce nruab nrab thiab tus nqi khiav zoo.
Cov nqi hlau ore yuav tsum hloov pauv ntawm $ 90 thiab $ 100 ib tuj hauv 2024, qhov tshwm sim uas yuav tsum muaj kev qhuab qhia hauv kev lag luam. Hais txog cov khoom tiav, xov yuav tsum khiav ntawm 4300-4500 yuan / ton. Txawm hais tias lub vaj tse tsis muaj zog, qhov kev thov rau kev tsim vaj tsev yog qhov zoo, kev txhawb nqa tus nqi yog qhov pom tseeb, thiab cov xov xov yuav txo qis, thiab qhov sib txawv ntawm cov coil hauv 2024 yuav tsum hloov pauv ntawm 100 yuan / tuj, txhawb kev xav tau hauv tsev, thiab cov txiaj ntsig ntawm cov hlau yuav tsum nce 100 yuan / tuj piv nrog 2023.
Hlau ore nqi tsis tshua muaj los ntawm kev muab khoom thiab kev thov, thiab muaj peb yam tseem ceeb: kev siv tshuab, nyiaj txiag thiab kev tswj hwm. Hauv cov hlau, cov nqi raug cuam tshuam los ntawm cov hauv qab no: cov nqi yuav tsis poob qis rau xyoo tom ntej; cov kev lag luam downstream kam rau ua tau zoo dua piv rau xyoo no, lub rooj sib tham txog kev lag luam kev lag luam tau npaj ntau txoj cai los txhim kho kev loj hlob rau xyoo tom ntej; kev lag luam downturn yuav coj kev lag luam ntau lawm kev qhuab qhia; thiab Tsoom Fwv Teb Chaws Reserve yuav pib txoj cai nyiaj txiag xoob.
Tus nqi kwv yees, qhov pom ntawm qhov tsis tu siab, tsis zoo siab, tus nqi nruab nrab tau txav me ntsis. Nws kwv yees tias tus nqi nruab nrab ntawm rebar yog 3900 yuan / tuj, thiab qhov ntau yog 3500 yuan / tuj-4400 yuan / tuj. Cov kauj kub kub yuav tsum nce 100 yuan / ton ntawm lub hauv paus ntawm cov xov, thiab qhov sib txawv coil yog qhov tsawg, feem ntau yog vim qhov nce ntawm cov coil kub ntau lawm. Nyob rau hauv cov nqe lus ntawm raw cov ntaub ntawv, tus nqi nruab nrab ntawm cov hlau ore yuav tsum yog 120 US dollars / ton, tus nqi ntau yuav tsum yog 90-140 US dollars / ton, coking thee yuav tsum yog 1800-2400 yuan / ton, coke yuav tsum yog 1900-2700 yuan / ton. Ntawm cov nyiaj tau los, lub voj voog qis qis tseem tsis tau dhau, thiab nws muaj peev xwm hais tias 50% ntawm steel mills xav tias yuav poob nyiaj xyoo tom ntej.
Kev kwv yees xyoo tom ntej rebar nqi chaw hauv 3900 ze, qis hauv 3750 ib ncig, siab hauv 4500 ib ncig. Piv nrog rau xyoo no, qhov kev hloov pauv ntawm tus nqi yuav yog qhov dav thiab dav.
1. Cov qauv siv steel tau ua kom zoo tsis tu ncua, qhov kev faib ua feem ntawm steel noj hauv kev lag luam kev lag luam tseem nce ntxiv, thiab Tuam Tshoj txoj kev lag luam steel tau pom muaj zog resilience.
2. Tag nrho cov steel noj tau mus txog lub ncov, tag nrho cov poob yog ib tug inevitable sib. Los ntawm kev ceev mus rau qhov zoo, los ntawm tag nrho cov ntim mus rau ntau yam, kev hloov pauv hauv kev tsom xam yog nyob rau hauv txoj kev.
3. Kev loj hlob zoo yog qhov yuav tsum tau muaj rau kev txhim kho zoo. Nws yog ib qho tsim nyog yuav tsum xav txog kev nthuav qhia cov kev txwv cov pa roj carbon monoxide thiab rov ntsuas qhov ua tau zoo ntawm 'capacity' kev tswj hwm.
4. Tsis muaj teeb meem ntau npaum li cas, kev siv zog txhawb nqa cov khoom siv rov ua dua tshiab yog qhov kev xaiv thawj zaug.
5. Cov yam ntxwv zoo heev ntawm cov khoom siv hlau (tus nqi ua haujlwm thiab cov yam ntxwv rov ua dua tshiab) nyob deb ntawm kev tsim thiab siv tag nrho, thiab qhov chaw ntawm 'khoom siv thiab hloov khoom siv' yog qhov kawg thiab muaj txoj hauv kev ntev mus.
Nws hais tias kev lag luam steel yuav tsum tsom mus rau lub luag haujlwm tseem ceeb: txhawm rau txhim kho kev lag luam hauv paus peev xwm thiab qib kev lag luam. Ua raws li ob txoj kev loj hlob loj: kev loj hlob ntsuab thiab kev tsim khoom ntse. Peb yuav tsom mus rau kev daws qhov mob cov ntsiab lus ntawm peb qhov kev lag luam loj: tswj kev tsim muaj peev xwm nthuav dav, txhawb kev lag luam concentration, thiab ua kom muaj kev ruaj ntseg. Txuas ntxiv txhawb kev thoob ntiaj teb kev lag luam ntawm Tuam Tshoj txoj kev lag luam steel.
