1.Steel consumption structure a tha chho zel a, manufacturing industry-a steel consumption proportion a pung zel a, China steel market-ah pawh chak leh tough tak a ni.
2. Steel hman zawng zawng hian a sang ber a thleng tawh a, a tlahniam zawng zawng hi thil tih theih loh a ni.Speed atanga quality thlengin, total volume atanga variety thlengin, focus in shift a kal mek a ni.
3. Hmasawnna tha tak nei tur chuan hmasawnna tha tak neih hi thil tul tak a ni. Carbon constraints siam chak zawka ngaihtuah a ngai a, 'capacity' governance hman tangkai dan tur ngaihtuah nawn leh a ngai bawk.
4. Trick engzat pawh nise, recycled steel recycle hi chak taka tihhmasawn hi duhthlanna hmasa ber a ni fo thin.
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Steel industry chuan hna pawimawh tak pakhat a ngaihtuah a ngai a ni, chu chu industrial basic capacity leh industrial chain level tihsan a ni. Hmasawnna thupui lian pahnih: green development leh intelligent manufacturing te chu zawm rawh. Industry lian pathumte pain point chinfel dan tur kan ngaihtuah dawn a ni: production capacity expansion control, industrial concentration tihhmasawn, leh resource security enkawl. China rama steel industry internationalization tihhmasawn zel
Tunah hian macro economy hian 'pass pressure' pali a hmachhawn mek a: pakhatnaah chuan, real estate-a innghahna chu hlawhtling taka a chhuah theih leh theih loh; pahnihnaah chuan, industry (manufacturing)-a return tlahniam zel tihkhawtlai chu a bulpui berah a paih chhuak thei ang em; pathumnaah chuan, ei tlem lutuk buaina chu rei tak a awm thei a; palina chu pawn lam harsatna nasa tak: pawn lam system atanga containment chu engtik lai pawhin tihchangtlun theih a ni.
'Pass breakthrough' hian thil lian pathum a tih a ngai a: a hmasa ber chu hmasawnna kalphung thar siam chak zawk (science leh technology sang tak tak tihhlawhtlinna chak zawk leh tunlai industrial system siam chak zawk) a ni a pahnihna chu ram chhunga mamawh tihpun, a bik takin consumption tihpun lam ngaihtuah a ni a; pathumna chu real estate bubble chu tumruh taka tihtawp a ni a, mahse real estate-a innghahna tihbo thuai a ni. Thiltihtheihna lian tak a neih thu a sawi a, hun rei tak chhunga hmasawnna leh chhelna chak tak a neih thu a sawi bawk.
Nakin hun thlirin, hun rei lote chhunga policy leh hun rei tak chhunga policy inkara organic coordination kan zawm a ngai a, hun rei tak chhunga thil tih tur kan ngaihven zawk tur a ni a, mode kan thlak tur a ni a, structure kan siamrem tur a ni a, quality kan siam tha tur a ni a, efficiency kan tipung tur a ni a, 'hmasawnna nen stability kan tipung tur a ni', hmasawnna leh sang chho zel turah stability kan zawng tur a ni a, hmasawnna leh sang zel tur risk te chu ha taka chinfel a ngai niin a ngai.
Industry tlahniam zel tur hmachhawn tur leh industry kalphung nghet tak vawng reng tur chuan kawng pali aangin kan hnathawh hi kan tichak tur a ni: Pakhatnaah chuan, inthlak danglam lovin hmasawnna quality sang tak kawng zawh rawh. Iron leh steel enterprise-te chuan hna hmasa ber atanga hmalakna thar an siam a, thiltih thar an lantir a, resource advantage chu industrial advantage-ah an chantir a, mimal hlawkna chu overall advantage-ah an chantir tur a ni. Pahnihnaah chuan, inremna tihchak a, internal volume tihtlem a, industry self-discipline leh coordinated development kawng chu inthlak danglam lovin zawh rawh. Iron leh steel industry-a enterprise sang ber berte hian benchmarking role an play tur a ni a, industry self-discipline leh market coordination tichak tur a ni a, market supply leh demand hi thawhhona tha zawk siam tur a ni a, supply mumal tak neih theih nan hma la tur a ni. Pathumnaah chuan, strategic supply chain-a service capacity tihchak a, steel supply chain fast response, stable leh efficient siam. Palinaah chuan, industrial innovation leh scientific leh technological innovation tihchak a, green, energy humhalh leh environment humhalhna kawng zawh.
Iron leh steel enterprise-te chu he kohna hi active taka chhangletin, industry self-discipline tihhmasawn a, inelna mumal lo leh non-essential hemorrhagic production tihtlem te, technological innovation hmanga product-te core competitiveness tihngheh te, high-end, green, efficient leh intelligent lama inthlak danglamna ti chak zawka kalpui a, high-quality development kawng nghet taka zawh turin a chah.
Kum 2023-a steel market thlirletna chuan kum tin steel man a tlahniam chhunzawm zel a, raw materials chu steel aiin a chak zawk a, industry hlawkna chu a hniam ber thlengin a awm.
Kum 2024 thlir chuan ram pawna steel hman danah chuan ram pawna steel hman a tlahniam dawn niin an sawi a, hei vang hian China export space a tlem hle a, kum hmasa aiin national steel export pawh a tlahniam bawk.
Domestic environment lam hawi chuan China GDP hi kum tin 5.0% in a pung chho zel tura ngaih a ni. Fixed assets-a investment chu 4.5%-in a pung a, real estate development-ah 6%-in a pung a, manufacturing-ah 6.8%-in a pung a, infrastructure-ah 7.0%-in a pung bawk.
Domestic consumption, China steel consumption hi kum hmasa aiin a bulpui berah chuan a flat tura ngaih a ni a, variety structure pawh a upgrade leh adjust chhunzawm zel a ni. Industry-a variable lian ber chu supply a la ni a, supply hian hlawkna a tichiang a, mahse kum 2024-a steel man level zawng zawng a tichiang bawk a, domestic leh foreign demand-in no incremental support hnuaiah supply tihtlem tlem lutuk hian industry efficiency a ti sang zauh zauh thei a ni.
Raw materials lamah chuan khawvel puma iron ore siamchhuah hi kum khat chhungin ton maktaduai 62-in a pung tura ngaih a ni a, consumption pawh ton maktaduai 26-in a pung a, iron ore supply pawh a tlahniam deuh a; coking coal siamchhuahna growth rate a tlahniam a, supply pawh a tlahniam zel a; coke siam chhuah a sang chhunzawm zel a, a man a tlahniam zel a; scrap supply pawh a sang tawk a, a man pawh a kal tluang hle.
Kum 2024-ah hian iron ore man hi ton khatah $90 leh $100 inkar a ni dawn a, hei vang hian industry chhungah production discipline a ngai a ni. Finished products lam hawi chuan thread hi 4300-4500 yuan / ton inkar a kal theih beisei a ni. Real estate hi chak lo mah se, infrastructure mamawhna a tha a, cost support a chiang a, thread supply pawh a tlahniam thei a, kum 2024-a coil danglamna chu yuan / ton 100 velin a inthlak danglam tur a ni a, hei hian ram chhunga mamawhna a tichak ang a, kum 2023 nena khaikhin chuan steel hlawkna chu yuan / ton 100-in a pung tur a ni.
Iron ore man hian supply leh demand nen hian inzawmna a nei tlem hle a, thil pawimawh pathum a awm a, chungte chu technical, financial leh regulatory factors te an ni. Steel-ah chuan a hnuaia thilte hian man a nghawng a ni: nakkumah chuan a man a tlahniam nasa dawn lo a; kumin nena khaikhin chuan downstream industry tolerance a ṭha chho a, economic work conference-ah hian nakkum atana hmasawnna tihngheh nan policy hrang hrang a rawt a industry tlahniam hian industry production self-discipline a kaihruai dawn a; leh Federal Reserve chuan loose monetary policy a tan dawn a ni.
Price forecast, point of view a lungchhiatthlak lo, hlim lo, price center a tlahniam deuh. Rebar man hi 3900 yuan / ton niin an chhut a, a range chu 3500 yuan / ton-4400 yuan / ton a ni. Thread atanga chhut chuan hot coil hi yuan / ton 100-in a pung tura ngaih a ni a, coil danglamna pawh a tlem hle a, hei hi hot coil siam chhuah tam vang a ni ber. Raw materials lamah chuan iron ore man lai ber chu US dollar / ton 120 vel a nih beisei a ni a, a man hi US dollar / ton 90-140 vel a nih beisei a ni a, coking coal hi 1800-2400 yuan / ton a nih beisei a ni a, coke hi 1900-2700 yuan / ton a nih beisei a ni bawk. Profit lamah chuan downside cycle hi a la tawp lo a, nakkumah steel mill 50% velin sum an hloh beisei a ni.
Forecast nakkumah rebar price center chu 3900 vel a ni a, low in 3750 vel, high in 4500 vel a ni. Kumin nena khaikhin chuan a man inthlak danglamna hi a zau leh zau zawk dawn a ni.
1. Steel hman dan tur chu tihchangtlun zel a ni a, thil siamna industry-a steel hman zat pawh a pung zel a, China rama steel market-ah pawh a chhe thei lo hle.
2. Steel hman zawng zawng hian a sang ber a thleng tawh a, a tlahniam zawng zawng hi pumpelh theih loh thil a ni. Speed atanga quality thlengin, total volume atanga variety thlengin, focus inthlak danglamna a awm mek a ni.
3. Hmasawnna tha tak nei tur chuan hmasawnna tha tak neih hi thil tul tak a ni. Carbon constraints siam chak zawka ngaihtuah a ngai a, 'capacity' governance hman tangkai dan tur ngaihtuah nawn leh a ngai bawk.
4. Trick engzat pawh nise, recycled steel recycle hi chak taka tihhmasawn hi duhthlanna hmasa ber a ni fo thin.
.
Steel industry chuan hna pawimawh tak pakhat a ngaihtuah a ngai a ni, chu chu industrial basic capacity leh industrial chain level tihsan a ni. Hmasawnna thupui lian pahnih: green development leh intelligent manufacturing te chu zawm rawh. Industry lian pathumte pain point chinfel dan tur kan ngaihtuah dawn a ni: production capacity expansion control, industrial concentration tihhmasawn, leh resource security enkawl. China rama steel industry internationalization tihhmasawn zel.
