1.Steel consumption structure hian a optimize chhunzawm zel a, manufacturing industry-a steel hman zat pawh a pung zel a, China steel market-ah pawh a chak a, a tough hle bawk.
2. Total steel consumption chu a sang ber a ni tawh a, total decline chu pumpelh theih loh trend a ni.Speed atanga quality thlengin, total volume atanga variety thlengin, shift in focus a kal mek a ni.
3. Efficient growth hi hmasawnna quality sang tak neih theihna tura tih loh theih loh a ni. Carbon constraints luh chak zawk ngaihtuah a, 'capacity' governance hman tangkai dan ngaihtuah nawn leh a ngai a ni.
4. Trick engzat pawh ni se, recycled steel recycling chu chak takin a tichak a, chu chu duhthlanna hmasa ber a ni fo thin.
5. Steel materials (cost performance leh recyclable characteristics) te ziarang tha tak tak te hi a taka hman leh hman a nihna a hla hle a, 'material upgrading leh material replacement' space hi a tawp lo va, kawng thui tak a awm a, kawng thui tak a awm bawk.
Steel industry chuan hna pawimawh tak a ngaihtuah tur a ni a, chu chu industrial basic capacity leh industrial chain level tihchangtlun a ni. Hmasawnna thupui lian pahnih: green development leh intelligent manufacturing te zawm rawh. Industry lian pathum: production capacity tihpunna control, industrial concentration tihhmasawn leh resource security tihchian a nih theih nan pain points chinfel dan tur kan ngaihtuah dawn a ni. China rama steel industry internationalization kalpui zelna tur a kalpui zel dawn a ni.
Tunah chuan macro economy hian 'pass pressure' pali a hmachhawn mek a, pakhatnaah chuan real estate-a innghahna chu hlawhtling takin a paih chhuak thei em tih; Pahnihnaah chuan, industry-a return tlahniam zel tur (manufacturing) tihkhawtlai chu a bulpui berah a chhuah thei em tih; Pathumnaah chuan, ei tlem lohna buaina chu a rei thei a; Palinaah chuan, pawn lam harsatna nasa tak: pawn lam system atanga containment chu engtik lai pawhin upgrade theih a ni.
'pass breakthrough' hian thil pawimawh pathum a ti tur a ni: a hmasa ber chu hmasawnna kalphung thar siam chak zawk tur a ni (high-level science leh technology tihhlawhtlin chak zawk tur leh tunlai industrial system siam chak zawk tur) A pahnihna chu domestic demand tihpun, a bik takin consumption tihpun tumna lam ngaihtuah a ni a; A pathumna chu real estate bubble chu tumruh taka tihtawp a ni a, mahse real estate-a innghahna tihbo thuai a ni. Potential lian tak a nei a, hun rei tak chhunga a thanlenna leh a resilience chak tak a neih thu a sawi bawk.
Nakin hun thlirin, hun rei lote chhunga policy leh hun rei tak chhunga policy inkara organic coordination kan zawm tur a ni a, hun rei tak chhunga kan ngaih pawimawh zawk tur a ni a, mode kan thlak a, structure kan siam tha tur a ni a, quality tihsan, efficiency tihpun, 'promote stability with progress', stability in progress leh rise tha taka chinfel tur kan zawng tur a ni tih a ring.
Industry-in a tlakchhiatna a thlen theih nan leh industry kalphung nghet tak a neih theih nan chuan kan hnathawh hi kawng li aangin kan tichak tur a ni: pakhatnaah chuan, hmasawnna tha tak kawng zawh tur chu zawm lovin. Iron leh steel enterprise-te chuan hmalakna hmasa ber hmangin hmalakna thar an siam tur a ni a, thiltih thar an lantir tur a ni a, resource advantage chu industry lama hlawknaah an chantir tur a ni a, mimal hlawkna chu overall advantage-ah an chantir tur a ni. Pahnihnaah chuan, inremna siam chu tichak la, a chhunga volume tihtlem la, industry-a mahni inthununna leh hmasawnna inrualremna kawng zawh rawh. Iron leh steel industry-a top enterprise te hian benchmarking role an nei tur a ni a, industry self-discipline leh market coordination tichak tur a ni a, market supply leh demand te chu jointly optimize se, flexible supply neih an tum tur a ni. Pathumnaah chuan, strategic supply chain-a service capacity tihchak a, chhanna rang tak, stable leh efficient steel supply chain siam. Palinaah chuan industrial innovation leh scientific leh technological innovation tihchak a, green, energy conservation leh environment humhalhna kawngpui zawm.
Iron leh steel enterprise-te chu kohna hi active taka chhan let a, industry self-discipline tihhmasawn, inelna mumal lo leh non-essential hemorrhagic production tihtlem te, technological innovation nena thil siamte core competitiveness tihngheh te, high-end, green, efficient leh intelligent lama inthlakna ti chak te, high-quality hmasawnna kawng te nghet taka kalpui turin a ngen a ni.
Kum 2023-a steel market thlirletna chuan kum tin steel man chu a tlahniam chhunzawm zel a, raw materials chu steel aiin a chak zawk a, industry-in low thar a thlen theih thu a sawi.
Kum 2024 hmalam hun thlir chuan ram pawna hman a nih danah chuan ram pawna steel hman tlem a tlahniam a, China-in a thawn chhuah theihna hmun a tlem phah a, kum khat chhungin ram pum huapa steel thawnchhuah pawh a tlahniam hle.
Ram chhung boruak lamah chuan China GDP hi kum tin 5.0%-in a pung dawn a ni. Fixed assets-a investment chu 4.5%-in a pung a, real estate development chu 6%-in a pung a, manufacturing chu 6.8%-in a pung a, infrastructure chu 7.0%-in a pung bawk.
Domestic consumption, China’s steel consumption chu a bul berah chuan kum hmasa aiin flat takin a awm beisei a ni a, variety structure chu a upgrade leh adjust chhunzawm zel a ni. Industry-a variable lian ber chu supply a la ni reng a, supply hian hlawkna a tichiang a, mahse kum 2024-a steel man level zawng zawng a tichiang bawk a, ram chhung leh ram pawn lama mamawhna NO incremental support hnuaiah chuan supply tihtlem tlem chuan industry efficiency a tisang zauh zauh thei a ni.
Raw materials lam hawi chuan khawvel puma iron ore siam chhuah chu kum khat chhungin ton maktaduai 62-in a pung tura ngaih a ni a, consumption pawh ton maktaduai 26-in a pung a, iron ore supply pawh a tlahniam deuh a Coking coal siam chhuah zat a lo thang chak zel a, supply pawh a tlahniam zel a; Coke siam chhuah a sang chhunzawm zel a, a man pawh a tlahniam; Scrap supply a sang tawk a, a man pawh a kal tluang hle.
Iron ore man hi kum 2024-ah chuan ton khatah $90 leh $100 inkar vel a nih beisei a ni a, hei hi industry chhunga production discipline neih a ngai a ni. Finished products lam hawi chuan thread hi 4300-4500 yuan / ton inkar a kal theih beisei a ni. Real estate chu a chak lo hle nachungin infrastructure mamawhna a tha a, cost support a chiang a, thread supply pawh a tlahniam thei a, kum 2024-a coil danglamna chu yuan / ton 100 vel a inthlak tur a ni a, domestic demand a tichak tur a ni a, steel hlawkna chu kum 2023 nena khaikhin chuan 100 yuan / ton-in a pung tur a ni.
Iron ore man hian supply leh demand nen hian inzawmna a nei tlem hle a, thil pawimawh pathum a awm a, chungte chu technical, financial leh regulatory factors te an ni. Steel-ah chuan a hnuaia thilte hian man a nghawng a ni: Nakkumah chuan sum senso chu nasa takin a tlahniam dawn lo; Downstream industry tolerance chu kumin nen khaikhin chuan a ṭha chho hle a, Economic Work Conference chuan nakkum atana ṭhan chhoh zelna tur policy hrang hrang a rawt a Industry tlahniam hian industry production self-discipline a kaihruai dawn a; Tin, Federal Reserve chuan loose monetary policy a tan dawn bawk.
Price forecast, a point of view chu a lungchhiatthlak lo, a hlim lo, price center chu a tlahniam deuh hlek. Rebar man average chu 3900 yuan / ton a ni a, a range chu 3500 yuan / ton-4400 yuan / ton a ni. Hot coil hi thread hmanga 100 yuan / ton-a tihpun a nih beisei a ni a, coil danglamna pawh a hniam hle a, a chhan ber chu hot coil siam chhuah a pun vang a ni. Raw materials lam hawi chuan price center of iron ore chu US dollar 120 / ton a nih beisei a ni a, price range chu 90-140 US dollars / ton a nih beisei a ni a, Coking coal chu 1800-2400 yuan / ton a nih beisei a ni a, Coke hi 1900-2700 yuan / ton a ni ang. Profit lamah chuan downside cycle hi a la tawp lo a, nakkumah steel mill 50% velin sum an hloh beisei a ni.
Forecast Nakkumah rebar price center chu kum 3900 velah a awm a, a hniam ber chu 3750 vel a ni a, a chhehvelah chuan 4500 vel a sang ber a ni. Kumin nen khaikhin chuan a man inthlak danglamna hi a zau zawk ang a, a zau zawk bawk ang.
1. Steel hman dan structure chu a tha chho zel a, thil siamchhuahna industry-a steel hman zat pawh a pung zel a, China-a steel market-ah pawh resilience chak tak a awm bawk.
2. Steel hman zawng zawng chu a sang ber a thleng tawh a, a tlahniam zawng zawng chu pumpelh theih loh trend a ni. Speed atanga quality thlengin, total volume atanga variety thlengin, shift in focus a kal mek a ni.
3. Efficient growth hi hmasawnna quality sang tak neih theihna tura tih loh theih loh a ni. Carbon constraints luh chak zawk ngaihtuah a, 'capacity' governance hman tangkai dan ngaihtuah nawn leh a ngai a ni.
4. Trick engzat pawh ni se, recycled steel recycling chu chak takin a tichak a, chu chu duhthlanna hmasa ber a ni fo thin.
5. Steel materials (cost performance leh recyclable characteristics) te ziarang tha tak tak te hi a taka hman leh hman a ni lo hle a, 'material upgrading leh material replacement' space hi a tawp lo va, kawng thui tak a awm a, kawng thui tak a awm bawk.
Steel industry chuan hna pawimawh tak a ngaihtuah tur a ni a, chu chu industrial basic capacity leh industrial chain level tihchangtlun a ni. Hmasawnna thupui lian pahnih: green development leh intelligent manufacturing te zawm rawh. Industry lian pathum: production capacity tihpunna control, industrial concentration tihhmasawn leh resource security tihchian a nih theih nan pain points chinfel dan tur kan ngaihtuah dawn a ni. China rama steel industry internationalization tihhmasawn zel.
