I-ackatch yokusetshenziswa kwensimbi iyaqhubeka nokwenza kahle, ingxenye yokusetshenziswa kwensimbi embonini yezokukhiqiza iyaqhubeka nokwanda, futhi imakethe yensimbi yaseChina ikhombisa okuqinile futhi okunzima.
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3. Ukukhula okusebenzayo kuyimfuneko engenakugwenywa yokuthuthuka okuseqophelweni eliphezulu. Kuyadingeka ukuthi ubheke ukusheshisa ukwethulwa kwezingqinamba zekhabhoni futhi avuselele kabusha ukusebenza kwe- 'umthamo ' ukubusa.
4. Akunandaba ukuthi mangaki amaqhinga, akhuthaza ukuvuselelwa kabusha kwensimbi esetshenzisiwe kuhlala kungukukhetha kokuqala.
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Uthe imboni yensimbi kufanele igxile emsebenzini oyisisekelo: ukuthuthukisa umthamo oyisisekelo wezimboni kanye nezinga lezinkinobho zezimboni. Namathela ezindikisweni ezimbili ezinkulu zokuthuthuka: Ukuthuthukiswa okuluhlaza kanye nokukhiqiza okuhlakaniphile. Sizogxila ekuxazululeni amaphoyinti wezinhlungu ezimboni ezintathu ezinkulu: ukulawula ukwanda kwamandla okukhiqiza, ukuthuthukisa ukugxilwa kwezimboni, kanye nokuqinisekisa ukuphepha kwezinsizakusebenza. Qhubeka nokukhuthaza ukusebenza kwamazwe omhlaba embonini yensimbi yaseChina
Njengamanje, umnotho we-macro ubhekene nengcindezi emine ebizayo Okwesibili, noma ngabe kungakususa ngokuyisisekelo ukuqeda izingqinamba zokuncipha kwemali embonini (ekwenziweni); Okwesithathu, inkinga yokusebenzisa okunganele kungenzeka ukuthi yinde; Okwesine, inselelo enkulu yangaphandle: Isithonjana esivela kuhlelo lwangaphandle singavuselelwa nganoma yisiphi isikhathi.
'PASS BROKHROUGE ' kumele yenze izinto ezintathu ezinkulu: okokuqala ukusheshisa ukwakhiwa kwephethini entsha yentuthuko (ukusheshisa ukuqaphela kwesayensi ephezulu kanye nobuchwepheshe futhi kusheshiswe ukwakhiwa kohlelo lwezimboni lwesimanje); Okwesibili ukugxila ekukhuliseni ukufunwa kwasekhaya, ukunwebeka ikakhulukazi ukusetshenziswa; Okwesithathu ukumisa ngokuphelele i-bubble yezezakhiwo, kepha ukusheshisa ukuqedwa kokuncika kwezezakhiwo. Ugcizelele ukuthi unokukhula okukhulu, ukukhula kwesikhathi eside nokuqina okuqinile.
Uma ebheka ikusasa, ukholelwa ukuthi kufanele sinamathele ekuxhumaneni kwe-organic phakathi kwezinqubomgomo zesikhathi esifushane nezinqubomgomo zesikhathi eside, sihlole ukuqina, ukuthuthukisa ukuqina, ukuthuthukisa ukuqina, futhi kuxazululwe ngempumelelo izingozi eziqhubekayo futhi zivuke.
Ukuze sibhekane nengcindezi ephansi yemboni futhi silondoloze ukusebenza okuzinzile komkhakha, kufanele siqinise umsebenzi wethu ngezici ezine: Okokuqala, ukulandela indlela yokuthuthuka okuphezulu. Amabhizinisi we-Iron nensimbi kufanele athathe izinyathelo ezintsha ngesisekelo somsebenzi wokuqala futhi abonise izenzo ezintsha, aguqule inzuzo ezinsizakalweni zezimboni, futhi aguqule izinzuzo zomuntu ngamunye zibe yinzuzo ephelele. Okwesibili, qinisa ukuxhumanisa, ukunciphisa ivolumu yangaphakathi, futhi ngokungacabangi ukuthatha umgwaqo wokuzikhuza embonini kanye nentuthuko ehlanganisiwe. Amabhizinisi aphezulu emkhakheni wensimbi kanye nensimbi kufanele adlale indima enombala, aqinise ukuzikhuza imboni kanye nokuxhumana kwemakethe, ngokuhlangene abeke ukunikezwa kwemakethe nokufuna, futhi alwele ukufezekisa ukulungiswa okuguqukayo. Okwesithathu, qinisa amandla wesevisi we-Strategic Supply Chain, futhi wakhe impendulo esheshayo, ozinzile futhi ofanele ukuhlinzekwa kwensimbi. Okwesine, ukuqinisa okusha kwezimboni kanye nokwenza ubuchwepheshe nezobuchwepheshe, futhi banamathela emgaqweni ohlaza okotshani, ukongiwa kwamandla nokuvikelwa kwemvelo.
Ubize amabhizinisi wensimbi nensimbi ukuphendula ngentshiseko kwikholi, athuthukise ukuzikhuza imboni, anciphise ukuncintisana okungalungile, aqhume ukuncintisana okuyisisekelo kwemikhiqizo, okuluhlaza okwesibhakabhaka okuphelele kwemikhiqizo, okuluhlaza okwesibhakabhaka, okusebenzayo nokuqondakalayo, ukuthatha ngokuqinile umgwaqo wokuthuthuka okuphezulu.
Ukubuyekezwa kwemakethe yensimbi ngo-2023 uthe amanani entengo yonyaka ayaqhubeka nokuwa, izinto ezivuthiwe zinamandla kunensimbi, izinzuzo zezimboni kokuphansi okuphansi.
Ukubheka phambili ku-2024, ngokuya ngokusetshenziswa kwaphesheya kwezingikususwa, kulindeleke ukuthi kuncishiswe ijubane, kushiye isikhala sokuthumela ngaphandle seChina silinganiselwe, futhi i-National Insimbi Export Behle unyaka nonyaka.
Ngokwemvelo yasekhaya, i-GDP yaseChina kulindeleke ukuthi ikhule ngo-5.0% unyaka ngonyaka. Ukutshalwa kwezimali kwezimpahla ezihleliwe kwakhula ngo-4,5%, ukuthuthukiswa kwezindlu nge-6%, ukukhiqiza ngo-6.8% kanye nengqalasizinda ngo-7.0% nge-7.0% ngo-7.0%.
Ukusetshenziswa Kwasekhaya, ukusetshenziswa kwensimbi yaseChina kulindeleke ukuthi kube yilapho unyaka nonyaka, isakhiwo sokwakheka okuhlukahlukene siyaqhubeka ukuthuthuka futhi silungise. Ukuguquguquka okukhulu kwemboni kusahlinzekwa, ukuhlinzeka kunquma inzuzo, kepha futhi kunquma inani lentengo lensimbi eliphelele ngo-2024. Ngaphansi kokufunwa kwezidingo zangaphandle, ukuncishiswa kokuhlinzekwa ngokulinganiselayo kungathuthukisa kancane kancane ukusebenza kwemboni.
Mayelana nezinto zokwakha ezivuthiwe, ukukhiqizwa kwe-Iron Ore ye-Global Ore kulindeleke ukuthi kwandiswe ngonyaka wezigidi ezingama-62 ngonyaka, ukusetshenziswa kukhuphuka ngamathani ayizigidi ezingama-26, ukunikezwa kwe-Iron Ore kukhululekile kancane; Izinga lokukhula lokukhiqizwa kwamalahle amalahle liyancipha futhi ukunikela kuhlala kukhululekile; Ukukhiqizwa kweCoke kuyaqhubeka ngokuqhubekayo, intengo ibuthakathaka; Ukulethwa kwe-scraf kukhuphuka ngokulingana nentengo kugijima kahle.
Amanani entengo e-Iron Ore kulindeleke ukuthi aguqukele phakathi kwama- $ 90 no- $ 100 ngethani ngalinye ngo-2024, umphumela odinga ukuqeqeshwa kokukhiqizwa ngaphakathi kwemboni. Ngokuya ngemikhiqizo eqediwe, kulindeleke ukuthi intambo isebenze phakathi kuka-4300-4500 yuan / ton. Yize indawo ethengiswayo ibuthakathaka, isidingo sengqalasizinda sihle, ukusekelwa kwezindleko kusobala, futhi ukuhanjiswa kwentambo kungancipha, futhi inzuzo yensimbi kufanele yenyuse nge-100 yuan / ton uma kuqhathaniswa ne-2023.
Intengo ye-Iron Ore inokuncane okufanele yenziwe ngokuhlinzekwa kanye nokufunwa, futhi kunezinto ezintathu eziphambili: ezobuchwepheshe, ezezimali kanye nezinto zokulawula. Ensimbi, amanani athinteka kulezi zinto ezilandelayo: izindleko ngeke ziwe kakhulu ngonyaka olandelayo; Ukubekezelelwa kwemboni ye-DownTream sekuthuthukile ngokuqhathaniswa nalo nyaka, ingqungquthela yomsebenzi wezomnotho iphakamise uchungechunge lwezinqubomgomo zokuqinisa ukukhula ngonyaka olandelayo; Umkhakha wokwehla uzohola ukukhiqizwa kokukhiqizwa kwemboni; Futhi i-Federal Reserve izoqala inqubomgomo yezezimali evulekile.
Isimo sezulu sentengo, iphuzu lokubukwa alidabuki, alijabule, isikhungo sentengo sahamba kancane phansi. Kulinganiselwa ukuthi intengo ephakathi yeRabar ingu-3900 yuan / ithoni, futhi uhla lungama-3500 yuan / ton-4400 yuan / ton. Ikhoyili eshisayo kulindeleke ukuthi yande nge-100 yuan / ton ngesisekelo sentambo, futhi umehluko we-coil uphansi, ikakhulukazi ngenxa yokwanda kokukhiqizwa kwamakhoyili okushisayo. Ngokuya kwezinto zokusetshenziswa okuluhlaza, isikhungo sentengo ye-Iron Ore kulindeleke ukuthi ibe ngamadola ase-US ayi-120, kulindeleke ukuthi kube yi-90-140 yuan dollars / ton, i-coke ilindelwe ukuthi ibe ngu-1800-2700 yuan / ton. Ehlangothini lwenzuzo, umjikelezo ophansi awukapheli, futhi kungenzeka ukuthi ama-50% amamitha ensimbi kulindeleke ukuthi alahlekelwe yimali ngonyaka olandelayo.
Isimo sezulu esilandelayo se-Rebar Price Center ngo-3900 eduzane, ephansi ngo-3750 nxazonke, phezulu ngo-4500 nxazonke. Uma kuqhathaniswa nalo nyaka, i-Price Frac Range iyoba banzi futhi ibanzi.
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2. Ukusetshenziswa kwensimbi okuphelele sekufinyelele esiqongweni, ukwehla okuphelele kuyinkambiso engenakugwenywa. Kusuka ku-Speed kuya kwekhwalithi, kusuka kuvolumu ephelele kuye ezinhlobonhlobo, ukuguqukela ku-Focus kuqhubeke.
3. Ukukhula okusebenzayo kuyimfuneko engenakugwenywa yokuthuthuka okuseqophelweni eliphezulu. Kuyadingeka ukuthi ubheke ukusheshisa ukwethulwa kwezingqinamba zekhabhoni futhi avuselele kabusha ukusebenza kwe- 'umthamo ' ukubusa.
4. Akunandaba ukuthi mangaki amaqhinga, akhuthaza ukuvuselelwa kabusha kwensimbi esetshenzisiwe kuhlala kungukukhetha kokuqala.
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Uthe imboni yensimbi kufanele igxile emsebenzini oyisisekelo: ukuthuthukisa umthamo oyisisekelo wezimboni kanye nezinga lezinkinobho zezimboni. Namathela ezindikisweni ezimbili ezinkulu zokuthuthuka: Ukuthuthukiswa okuluhlaza kanye nokukhiqiza okuhlakaniphile. Sizogxila ekuxazululeni amaphoyinti wezinhlungu ezimboni ezintathu ezinkulu: ukulawula ukwanda kwamandla okukhiqiza, ukuthuthukisa ukugxilwa kwezimboni, kanye nokuqinisekisa ukuphepha kwezinsizakusebenza. Qhubeka nokukhuthaza ukusebenza kwamazwe omkhakha wonke wezensimbi e-China.
