1.Isakhiwo sokusetshenziswa kwensimbi siyaqhubeka nokukhula, ingxenye yokusetshenziswa kwensimbi embonini yokukhiqiza iyaqhubeka nokukhula, futhi imakethe yensimbi yaseChina ibonisa ukuqina nokuqinile.
2. Ingqikithi yokusetshenziswa kwensimbi ifinyelele phezulu, ukwehla okuphelele kuwumkhuba ongenakugwemeka.Kusuka ngesivinini kuya kukhwalithi, kusukela kumthamo ophelele kuya ezinhlobonhlobo, ukushintshwa kokugxila kuyaqhubeka.
3. Ukukhula okuphumelelayo kuyisidingo esingenakugwenywa sokuthuthukiswa kwekhwalithi ephezulu. Kuyadingeka ukucabangela ukusheshisa ukwethulwa kwezingqinamba zekhabhoni futhi kuhlolwe kabusha ukusebenza 'kokungamela' kokubusa.
4. Kungakhathaliseki ukuthi mangaki amaqhinga, ukukhuthaza ngamandla ukugaywa kabusha kwensimbi egaywe kabusha kuhlale kuyisinqumo sokuqala.
5. Izici ezinhle kakhulu zezinto zensimbi (ukusebenza kwezindleko nezici ezigaywa kabusha) zikude kakhulu nokuthuthukiswa nokusetshenziswa ngokugcwele, futhi isikhala 'sokuthuthukiswa kwezinto kanye nokushintshwa kwezinto ezibonakalayo' asipheli futhi kusekude ukuhamba.
Uthe imboni yensimbi kufanele igxile emsebenzini obalulekile: ukwenza ngcono umthamo oyisisekelo wezimboni kanye nezinga lochungechunge lwezimboni. Namathela ezindikimbeni ezimbili ezinkulu zentuthuko: ukuthuthukiswa kokuluhlaza kanye nokukhiqiza okuhlakaniphile. Sizogxila ekuxazululeni amaphuzu obuhlungu ezimbonini ezintathu ezinkulu: ukulawula ukukhuliswa kwamandla okukhiqiza, ukukhuthaza ukugxila kwezimboni, nokuqinisekisa ukuphepha kwezinsiza. Qhubeka nokugqugquzela ukwenziwa kwamazwe ngamazwe kwemboni yensimbi yaseChina
Njengamanje, umnotho omkhulu ubhekene 'nengcindezi yokudlula' ezine: okokuqala, ukuthi ungasusa yini ngempumelelo ukuncika kwezakhiwo; okwesibili, ukuthi ingakwazi yini ukususa ngokuyisisekelo isithiyo sokuncipha kwembuyiselo embonini (ezokukhiqiza); okwesithathu, inkinga yokusetshenziswa okunganele ingase ibe isikhathi eside; okwesine, inselele enzima yangaphandle: ukuthinta okuvela ohlelweni lwangaphandle kungase kuthuthukiswe noma nini.
'Impumelelo yokudlula' kumele yenze izinto ezintathu ezinkulu: eyokuqala iwukusheshisa ukwakhiwa kwephethini yentuthuko entsha (ukusheshisa ukufezeka kwezinga eliphezulu lesayensi nobuchwepheshe kanye nokusheshisa ukwakhiwa kohlelo lwesimanje lwezimboni); okwesibili ukugxila ekwandiseni isidingo sasekhaya, ikakhulukazi ukwandisa ukusetshenziswa; okwesithathu ukumisa ngokuqinile ibhamuza lezindlu ezithengiswayo, kodwa ukusheshisa ukuqedwa kokuncika ngendawo yokuhlala. Ugcizelele ukuthi unamandla amakhulu, ukukhula kwesikhathi eside kanye nokuqina okuqinile.
Uma ebheka esikhathini esizayo, ukholelwa ukuthi kufanele sibambelele ekuxhumaneni kwezinto eziphilayo phakathi kwezinqubomgomo zesikhathi esifushane nezinqubomgomo zesikhathi eside, sinake kakhulu isikhathi eside, siguqule imodi, silungise isakhiwo, sithuthukise ikhwalithi, sikhulise ukusebenza kahle, 'sikhuthaze ukuzinza ngenqubekelaphambili', sifune ukuzinza okuqhubekayo nokukhuphuka, futhi sixazulule ngempumelelo izingozi eziqhubekayo nokukhuphuka.
Ukuze sibhekane nengcindezi ephansi yemboni futhi sigcine ukusebenza okuzinzile kwemboni, kufanele siqinise umsebenzi wethu ezicini ezine: Okokuqala, silandele ngokungaguquki indlela yentuthuko yezinga eliphezulu. Amabhizinisi ensimbi nensimbi kufanele athathe izinyathelo ezintsha ngesisekelo somsebenzi wokuqala futhi abonise izenzo ezintsha, aguqule izinzuzo zensiza zibe izinzuzo zezimboni, futhi aguqule izinzuzo zomuntu ngamunye zibe izinzuzo eziphelele. Okwesibili, qinisa ukuxhumanisa, wehlise umthamo wangaphakathi, futhi ngokungaguquki uthathe umgwaqo wokuzithiba kwemboni kanye nentuthuko edidiyelwe. Amabhizinisi aphezulu embonini yensimbi neyensimbi kufanele adlale indima yokulinganisa, aqinise ukuzithiba kwemboni kanye nokuxhumana kwezimakethe, aqinise ngokuhlanganyela ukuhlinzekwa kwemakethe kanye nesidingo, futhi alwele ukuzuza ukunikezwa okuvumelana nezimo. Okwesithathu, ukuqinisa umthamo wesevisi we-strategic supply chain, futhi kwakhiwe impendulo esheshayo, ezinzile futhi ephumelelayo yochungechunge lokuhlinzeka ngensimbi. Okwesine, ukuqinisa ukusungulwa kwezimboni kanye nokuqanjwa kabusha kwesayensi nezobuchwepheshe, futhi kuhambisane nomgwaqo oluhlaza, ukongiwa kwamandla kanye nokuvikelwa kwemvelo.
Ucele amabhizinisi ensimbi nensimbi ukuba aphendule ngenkuthalo obizweni, akhuthaze ukuzithiba kwemboni, anciphise ukuncintisana okungahlelekile kanye nokukhiqizwa okungabalulekile kwe-hemorrhagic, ahlanganise ukuncintisana okuyinhloko kwemikhiqizo emisha emisha yezobuchwepheshe, asheshise ukuguqulwa kwekhwalithi ephezulu, eluhlaza, ephumelelayo futhi ehlakaniphile, futhi athathe ngokuqinile umgwaqo wokuthuthukiswa kwekhwalithi ephezulu.
Ukubuyekezwa kwemakethe yensimbi ngo-2023 yathi izintengo zensimbi zonyaka ziyaqhubeka nokuwa ngezitebhisi, izinto zokusetshenziswa zinamandla kunensimbi, izinzuzo zemboni ziye zaphansi.
Uma sibheka phambili ku-2024, mayelana nokusetshenziswa phesheya kwezilwandle, kulindeleke ukuthi ukusetshenziswa kwensimbi phesheya kwehle, okushiya indawo yaseChina yokuthumela ngaphandle ilinganiselwe, kanti nokuthunyelwa kwensimbi kuzwelonke kwehle unyaka nonyaka.
Mayelana nemvelo yasekhaya, i-GDP yaseChina kulindeleke ukuthi ikhule ngo-5.0% unyaka nonyaka. Ukutshalwa kwezimali ezimpahleni ezingaguquki kukhule ngo-4.5%, ukuthuthukiswa kwezindlu nezindlu ngo-6%, ukukhiqizwa ngo-6.8% kanye nengqalasizinda ngo-7.0%.
Ukusetshenziswa kwasekhaya, ukusetshenziswa kwensimbi yaseChina kulindeleke ukuthi kube ngokuyisisekelo unyaka nonyaka, ukwakheka okuhlukahlukene kuyaqhubeka nokuthuthuka nokulungisa. Okuguquguqukayo okukhulu kakhulu kwemboni kusahlinzeka, ukuhlinzeka kunquma inzuzo, kodwa futhi kunquma izinga lentengo jikelele lensimbi ngo-2024. Ngaphansi kokusekelwa okungekho okwenyukayo kwesidingo sasekhaya nesangaphandle, ukunciphisa ukunikezwa okulinganiselwe kungathuthukisa kancane kancane ukusebenza kahle kwemboni.
Mayelana nezinto zokusetshenziswa, ukukhiqizwa kwe-iron ore emhlabeni wonke kulindeleke ukuthi kwande ngamathani ayizigidi ezingu-62 ngonyaka, ukusetshenziswa kukhuphuka ngamathani ayizigidi ezingu-26, ukutholakala kwensimbi kuyancipha kancane; izinga lokukhula kokukhiqizwa kwamalahle liyancipha futhi ukunikezwa kuhlala kuxega; ukukhiqizwa kwe-coke kuphezulu ngokuqhubekayo, intengo ibuthakathaka; ukunikezwa kwe-scrap kukhuphuka ngokusesilinganisweni futhi intengo ihamba kahle.
Izintengo ze-iron ore kulindeleke ukuthi zishintshe phakathi kuka-$90 no-$100 ngethani ngo-2024, umphumela odinga isiyalo sokukhiqiza ngaphakathi embonini. Mayelana nemikhiqizo eqediwe, intambo kulindeleke ukuthi isebenze phakathi kuka-4300-4500 yuan / ton. Nakuba indawo ethengiswayo ibuthakathaka, isidingo sengqalasizinda sihle, ukusekelwa kwezindleko kusobala, futhi ukunikezwa kwentambo kungase kwehle, futhi umehluko wekhoyili ngo-2024 kufanele uguquguquke cishe ku-100 yuan / ton, okugqugquzela isidingo sasekhaya, futhi inzuzo yensimbi kufanele ikhuphuke ngo-100 yuan / ton uma kuqhathaniswa no-2023.
Intengo yensimbi ayihlangene kancane nokuhlinzekwa kanye nesidingo, futhi kunezici ezintathu ezibalulekile: izici zobuchwepheshe, zezimali kanye nokulawula. Ensimbi, amanani athinteka yizici ezilandelayo: izindleko ngeke ziwe kakhulu ngonyaka ozayo; ukubekezelelana kwemboni engezansi kube ngcono uma kuqhathaniswa nalo nyaka, ingqungquthela yomsebenzi wezomnotho iphakamise uchungechunge lwezinqubomgomo zokusimamisa ukukhula konyaka ozayo; ukwehla kwezimboni kuzoqondisa ukuzithiba kokukhiqiza kwemboni; futhi i-Federal Reserve izoqala inqubomgomo yemali exekethile.
Isibikezelo senani, iphuzu lokubuka alidabuki, alijabuli, isikhungo samanani sithuthele kancane phansi. Kulinganiselwa ukuthi isilinganiso senani lentengo ye-rebar ngu-3900 yuan / ton, futhi ububanzi buyi-3500 yuan / ton-4400 yuan / ton. Ikhoyili eshisayo kulindeleke ukuthi inyuke ngo-100 yuan / ton ngesisekelo sentambo, futhi umehluko wekhoyili uphansi, ikakhulukazi ngenxa yokwanda kokukhiqizwa kwamakhoyili ashisayo. Ngokuya ngezinto zokusetshenziswa, isikhungo senani le-iron ore kulindeleke ukuthi sibe ngama-dollar ayi-120 / ton, uhla lwamanani kulindeleke ukuthi lube ngamadola angama-90-140 / ton, amalahle okupheka kulindeleke ukuthi abe yi-1800-2400 yuan / ton, i-coke kulindeleke ukuthi ibe yi-1900-2700 yuan / ton. Ngasohlangothini lwenzuzo, umjikelezo we-downside awukapheli, futhi kungenzeka ukuthi i-50% yemishini yensimbi kulindeleke ukuthi ilahlekelwe yimali ngonyaka ozayo.
Isibikezelo sangonyaka ozayo isikhungo senani le-rebar ngo-3900 eduze, siphansi ngo-3750 nxazonke, siphezulu ngo-4500 nxazonke. Uma kuqhathaniswa nalo nyaka, uhla lokuguquguquka kwentengo luzoba banzi futhi lube banzi.
1. Isakhiwo sokusetshenziswa kwensimbi siye sathuthukiswa ngokuqhubekayo, ingxenye yokusetshenziswa kwensimbi embonini yokukhiqiza iyaqhubeka nokukhula, futhi imakethe yensimbi yaseChina ibonise ukuqina okuqinile.
2. Ingqikithi yokusetshenziswa kwensimbi ifinyelele phezulu, ukwehla okuphelele kuwumkhuba ongenakugwemeka. Ukusuka kwijubane kuye kwikhwalithi, ukusuka kumthamo ophelele kuye ezinhlobonhlobo, ukushintsha kokugxila kuyaqhubeka.
3. Ukukhula okuphumelelayo kuyisidingo esingenakugwenywa sokuthuthukiswa kwekhwalithi ephezulu. Kuyadingeka ukucabangela ukusheshisa ukwethulwa kwezingqinamba zekhabhoni futhi kuhlolwe kabusha ukusebenza 'kokungamela' kokubusa.
4. Kungakhathaliseki ukuthi mangaki amaqhinga, ukukhuthaza ngamandla ukugaywa kabusha kwensimbi egaywe kabusha kuhlale kuyisinqumo sokuqala.
5. Izici ezinhle kakhulu zezinto zensimbi (ukusebenza kwezindleko nezici ezigaywa kabusha) zikude kakhulu nokuthuthukiswa nokusetshenziswa ngokugcwele, futhi isikhala 'sokuthuthukiswa kwezinto kanye nokushintshwa kwezinto ezibonakalayo' asipheli futhi kusekude ukuhamba.
Uthe imboni yensimbi kufanele igxile emsebenzini obalulekile: ukwenza ngcono umthamo oyisisekelo wezimboni kanye nezinga lochungechunge lwezimboni. Namathela ezindikimbeni ezimbili ezinkulu zentuthuko: ukuthuthukiswa kokuluhlaza kanye nokukhiqiza okuhlakaniphile. Sizogxila ekuxazululeni amaphuzu obuhlungu ezimbonini ezintathu ezinkulu: ukulawula ukukhuliswa kwamandla okukhiqiza, ukukhuthaza ukugxila kwezimboni, nokuqinisekisa ukuphepha kwezinsiza. Qhubeka nokugqugquzela ukwenziwa kwamazwe ngamazwe kwemboni yensimbi yaseChina.
