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2. Omugatte gw’ebyuma ebikozesebwa gutuuse ku ntikko, okukendeera kwonna muze oguteewalika.Okuva ku sipiidi okutuuka ku mutindo, okuva ku bunene bwonna okutuuka ku njawulo, enkyukakyuka mu kussa essira eri mu maaso.
3. Okukula obulungi kyetaagisa ekiteewalika eri enkulaakulana ey’omutindo ogwa waggulu. Kyetaagisa okulowooza ku kwanguyiza okuleeta ebiziyiza kaboni n'okuddamu okwekenneenya obulungi bw'enfuga ya 'obusobozi'.
4. Ne bwe kiba obukodyo bumeka, okutumbula n’amaanyi okuddamu okukola ebyuma ebiddamu okukozesebwa bulijjo kye kisooka okulondebwa.
5. Ebintu ebirungi ennyo eby'ebintu ebikozesebwa mu byuma (omutindo gw'ebisale n'engeri eziyinza okuddamu okukozesebwa) biri wala nnyo okukulaakulanyizibwa mu bujjuvu n'okukozesebwa, era ekifo kya 'okulongoosa ebintu n'okukyusa ebintu' tekikoma era waliwo olugendo luwanvu okutambula.
Yagambye nti amakolero g’ebyuma galina okussa essira ku mulimu omukulu: okutumbula obusobozi bw’amakolero obusookerwako n’omutindo gw’enjegere z’amakolero. Goberera emiramwa ebiri emikulu egy’enkulaakulana: enkulaakulana eya kiragala n’okukola ebintu mu ngeri ey’amagezi. Essira tugenda kulissa ku kugonjoola ebiruma amakolero asatu amakulu: okufuga okugaziya obusobozi bw’okufulumya, okutumbula okukuŋŋaanyizibwa kw’amakolero, n’okukakasa obukuumi bw’eby’obugagga. Mugende mu maaso n’okutumbula okutwala amakolero g’ebyuma mu China mu nsi yonna
Mu kiseera kino, ebyenfuna ebinene byolekedde 'okunyigirizibwa kw'okuyita' bina: ekisooka, oba bisobola bulungi okugoba okwesigama ku by'amayumba n'ettaka; ekyokubiri, oba mu musingi esobola okugoba ekizibu ky’okukendeera kw’amagoba mu makolero (amakolero); ekyokusatu, ekizibu ky’obutanywa kimala kiyinza okumala ebbanga eddene; eky’okuna, okusoomoozebwa okw’amaanyi okw’ebweru: okuziyiza okuva mu nkola ey’ebweru kuyinza okulongoosebwa ekiseera kyonna.
'Pass breakthrough' erina okukola ebintu bisatu ebikulu: ekisooka kwe kwanguyiza okuzimba enkola empya ey'enkulaakulana (okwanguya okutuukiriza ssaayansi ne tekinologiya ow'omutindo ogwa waggulu n'okwanguyiza okuzimba enkola y'amakolero ey'omulembe); ekyokubiri kwe kussa essira ku kugaziya obwetaavu bw’omunda mu ggwanga, okusinga okugaziya enkozesa; eky’okusatu kwe kuyimiriza n’obumalirivu ekizibu ky’ebyobugagga eby’omu ttaka, naye okwanguya okumalawo okwesigama ku by’amayumba. Yakikkaatirizza nti alina obusobozi bungi nnyo, okukula okumala ebbanga eddene n’okugumira embeera ey’amaanyi.
Nga tutunuulira ebiseera eby'omu maaso, alowooza nti tusaanidde okunywerera ku nkolagana ey'obutonde wakati w'enkola ez'ekiseera ekitono n'ez'ekiseera ekiwanvu, okufaayo ennyo ku nkola ez'ekiseera ekiwanvu, okukyusa engeri, okutereeza ensengeka, okulongoosa omutindo, okwongera ku bulungibwansi, 'okutumbula obutebenkevu n'enkulaakulana', okunoonya obutebenkevu mu nkulaakulana n'okulinnya, n'okugonjoola obulungi akabi akali mu nkulaakulana n'okulinnya.
Okusobola okugumira puleesa y’amakolero egenda wansi n’okukuuma enkola y’amakolero nga nnywevu, tusaanidde okunyweza emirimu gyaffe okuva ku bintu bina: Ekisooka, tugoberera ekkubo ly’enkulaakulana ey’omutindo ogwa waggulu awatali kuwuguka. Ebitongole by’ebyuma n’ebyuma birina okukola ebipya nga bisinziira ku mulimu ogusookerwako n’okulaga ebikolwa ebipya, okukyusa enkizo mu by’obugagga okufuuka ebirungi mu makolero, n’okukyusa enkizo z’omuntu kinnoomu mu birungi okutwalira awamu. Ekirala, okunyweza okukwasaganya, okukendeeza ku bungi obw’omunda, era awatali kuseeseetula kukwata ekkubo ly’okwefuga mu makolero n’enkulaakulana ekwatagana. Ebitongole eby’oku ntikko mu byuma n’ebyuma birina okukola omulimu gw’okugeraageranya, okunyweza okwefuga kw’amakolero n’okukwasaganya akatale, wamu okulongoosa obwetaavu n’obwetaavu bw’akatale, n’okufuba okutuuka ku bungi obukyukakyuka. Ekyokusatu, okunyweza obusobozi bw’obuweereza bw’omukutu gw’okugaba ebyuma ogw’enteekateeka, n’okuzimba enkola y’okugaba ebyuma mu ngeri ey’amangu, enywevu era ekola obulungi. Eky’okuna, okunyweza obuyiiya mu makolero n’obuyiiya bwa ssaayansi ne tekinologiya, n’okunywerera ku luguudo lw’ebimera ebirabika obulungi, okukuuma amaanyi n’okukuuma obutonde bw’ensi.
Yasabye amakampuni g’ebyuma n’ebyuma okwanukula n’obunyiikivu omulanga guno, okutumbula okwefuga kw’amakolero, okukendeeza ku kuvuganya okutabangula n’okufulumya omusaayi ogutali mukulu, okunyweza okuvuganya okukulu okw’ebintu n’obuyiiya bwa tekinologiya, okwanguya enkyukakyuka okutuuka ku mutindo ogw’awaggulu, ogwa kiragala, okukola obulungi n’okugezi, n’okukwata ekkubo ly’enkulaakulana ey’omutindo ogwa waggulu.
Okuddamu okwetegereza akatale k’ebyuma mu 2023 kwategeezezza nti emiwendo gy’ebyuma egy’omwaka gikyagenda mu maaso n’okukka amadaala, ebigimusa binywevu okusinga ebyuma, amakolero gaganyulwa okutuuka ku wansi omupya.
Bw’otunuulira omwaka 2024, mu nsonga z’okukozesa ebyuma emitala w’amayanja, kisuubirwa nti enkozesa y’ebyuma emitala w’amayanja egenda kukendeera, ekireka ekifo China ky’egenda okutunda ebweru w’eggwanga kitono, era ebyuma ebifulumizibwa ebweru w’eggwanga mu ggwanga byakendedde omwaka ku mwaka.
Mu mbeera y’obutonde bw’ensi, GDP ya China esuubirwa okukula ebitundu 5.0% omwaka ku mwaka. Ensimbi eziteekeddwa mu bintu ebikalu zakula ebitundu 4.5%, okukulaakulanya ettaka n’amayumba ebitundu 6%, amakolero ebitundu 6.8% n’ebizimbe ebitundu 7.0%.
Enkozesa y’awaka, enkozesa ya China ey’ebyuma okusinga esuubirwa okuba nga ya flat omwaka ku mwaka, ensengeka y’ekika ekyagenda mu maaso n’okulongoosa n’okutereeza. Enkyukakyuka esinga obunene mu mulimu guno ekyali kugaba, okugabibwa kwe kusalawo amagoba, naye era kwe kusalawo omutindo gw’emiwendo okutwalira awamu ogw’ekyuma mu 2024. Wansi w’obuwagizi obutali bwa kweyongera kw’obwetaavu bw’omunda n’ebweru, okukendeeza ku bungi obw’ekigero kuyinza okulongoosa mpolampola obulungi bw’amakolero.
Mu by’ebigimusa, okufulumya ekyuma mu nsi yonna kusuubirwa okweyongera ttani obukadde 62 omwaka ku mwaka, enkozesa yeeyongera ttani obukadde 26, ebyuma ebifulumizibwa biyitiriddeko katono; omutindo gw’okukula kw’okukola amanda ga coking gukendeera era n’okugagaba kusigala nga tekuliimu; okukola coke kuli waggulu buli kiseera, bbeeyi nnafu; scrap supply yeeyongera mu kigero ate bbeeyi etambula bulungi.
Ebbeeyi y’ekyuma esuubirwa okukyukakyuka wakati wa ddoola 90 ne 100 buli ttani mu 2024, ekivaamu ekyetaagisa empisa mu kukola ebyuma mu mulimu guno. Mu nsonga z’ebintu ebiwedde, obuwuzi busuubirwa okutambula wakati wa 4300-4500 yuan / ton. Wadde ng’ebizimbe binafu, obwetaavu bw’ebizimbe bulungi, obuwagizi bw’ebisale bweyolekera ddala, era n’obuwuzi obuweebwa buyinza okukendeera, era enjawulo ya koyilo mu 2024 erina okukyukakyuka ku 100 yuan / ttani, okusitula obwetaavu bw’omunda mu ggwanga, era amagoba g’ekyuma galina okweyongera ne 100 yuan / ttani bw’ogeraageranya ne 2023.
Bbeeyi y’ekyuma terina kakwate konna ku bungi n’obwetaavu, era waliwo ensonga ssatu enkulu: eby’ekikugu, eby’ensimbi n’eby’okulungamya. Mu byuma, emiwendo gikosebwa ensonga zino wammanga: ssente tezijja kugwa nnyo omwaka ogujja; okugumiikiriza kw’amakolero agali wansi w’amazzi kulongooseddwa bw’ogeraageranya n’omwaka guno, olukiiko lw’emirimu gy’ebyenfuna lwateesa ku nkola eziwerako okutebenkeza enkulaakulana y’omwaka ogujja; okusereba kw’amakolero kujja kulungamya okwefuga kw’okufulumya amakolero; era ekitongole kya Federal Reserve kigenda kutandika enkola y’ensimbi etali nnywevu.
Price forecast, point of view si ya nnaku, si ya ssanyu, price center yasenguka katono wansi. Kiteeberezebwa nti bbeeyi ya rebar eya wakati eri 3900 yuan / ton, era range eri 3500 yuan / ton-4400 yuan / ton. Koyilo eyokya esuubirwa okweyongera ne yuan 100 / ttani ku musingi gwa wuzi, era enjawulo ya koyilo ntono, okusinga olw’okweyongera kw’okufulumya koyilo eyokya. Mu bikozesebwa ebisookerwako, ebbeeyi wakati w’ekyuma esuubirwa okuba ddoola za Amerika 120 / ttani, ebbeeyi esuubirwa okuba ddoola za Amerika 90-140 / ttani, amanda ga coking gasuubirwa okuba 1800-2400 yuan / ttani, coke asuubirwa okuba 1900-2700 yuan / ttani. Ku ludda lw’amagoba, enzirukanya y’okukka tennaggwa, era kisoboka okuba nti ebitundu 50% ku byuma by’ebyuma bisuubirwa okufiirwa ssente omwaka ogujja.
Okuteebereza omwaka ogujja rebar price center mu 3900 okumpi, wansi mu 3750 okwetoloola, waggulu mu 4500 okwetoloola. Bw’ogeraageranya n’omwaka guno, enkyukakyuka mu bbeeyi egenda kweyongera okugaziwa.
1. Ensengeka y’enkozesa y’ebyuma ebadde erongooseddwa buli kiseera, ekitundu ky’enkozesa y’ebyuma mu makolero kyeyongera okweyongera, era akatale k’ebyuma mu China kalaze okugumira embeera ey’amaanyi.
2. Omugatte gw’ebyuma ebikozesebwa gutuuse ku ntikko, okukendeera kwonna muze oguteewalika. Okuva ku sipiidi okutuuka ku mutindo, okuva ku bunene bwonna okutuuka ku njawulo, enkyukakyuka mu kussa essira eri mu maaso.
3. Okukula obulungi kyetaagisa ekiteewalika eri enkulaakulana ey’omutindo ogwa waggulu. Kyetaagisa okulowooza ku kwanguyiza okuleeta ebiziyiza kaboni n'okuddamu okwekenneenya obulungi bw'enfuga ya 'obusobozi'.
4. Ne bwe kiba obukodyo bumeka, okutumbula n’amaanyi okuddamu okukola ebyuma ebiddamu okukozesebwa bulijjo kye kisooka okulondebwa.
5. Ebintu ebirungi ennyo eby'ebintu ebikozesebwa mu byuma (omutindo gw'ebisale n'engeri eziyinza okuddamu okukozesebwa) biri wala nnyo okukulaakulanyizibwa mu bujjuvu n'okukozesebwa, era ekifo kya 'okulongoosa ebintu n'okukyusa ebintu' tekikoma era waliwo olugendo luwanvu okutambula.
Yagambye nti amakolero g’ebyuma galina okussa essira ku mulimu omukulu: okutumbula obusobozi bw’amakolero obusookerwako n’omutindo gw’enjegere z’amakolero. Goberera emiramwa ebiri emikulu egy’enkulaakulana: enkulaakulana eya kiragala n’okukola ebintu mu ngeri ey’amagezi. Essira tugenda kulissa ku kugonjoola ebiruma amakolero asatu amakulu: okufuga okugaziya obusobozi bw’okufulumya, okutumbula okukuŋŋaanyizibwa kw’amakolero, n’okukakasa obukuumi bw’eby’obugagga. Mugende mu maaso n’okutumbula okutwala amakolero g’ebyuma mu China mu nsi yonna.
