I-1.Isakhiwo sokusetyenziswa kwensimbi siyaqhubeka nokwandisa, umlinganiselo wokusetyenziswa kwensimbi kwishishini lokuvelisa uyaqhubeka nokunyuka, kwaye imarike yensimbi yaseChina ibonisa ukuqina kunye nokuqina.
2. Ukusetyenziswa kwensimbi iyonke kuye kwafikelela kwinqanaba eliphezulu, ukuhla kwexabiso kuyindlela engenakuphepheka.Ukusuka kwisantya ukuya kumgangatho, ukusuka kumthamo opheleleyo ukuya kwiindidi ezahlukeneyo, utshintsho ekugxilwe kulo luyaqhubeka.
3. Ukukhula okusebenzayo yimfuneko engenakuthintelwa kuphuhliso olukumgangatho ophezulu. Kuyimfuneko ukuba kuqwalaselwe ukukhawulezisa ukuqaliswa kwezithintelo zekhabhoni kwaye kuphononongwe kwakhona ukusebenza 'kokuxhobisa' kolawulo.
4. Kungakhathaliseki ukuba mangaphi amaqhinga, ukukhuthaza ngamandla ukubuyiswa kwensimbi esetyenzisiweyo kuhlala kukhetho lokuqala.
5. Iimpawu ezigqwesileyo zezinto zensimbi (iindleko zokusebenza kunye neempawu ezinokuphinda zisetyenziswe) zikude nokuphuhliswa ngokupheleleyo kwaye zisetyenziswe, kwaye indawo 'yokuphuculwa kwezinto kunye nokutshintshwa kwezinto' ayinasiphelo kwaye kukho indlela ende yokuhamba.
Wathi imboni yentsimbi kufuneka igxininise kumsebenzi osisiseko: ukuphucula umthamo wesiseko soshishino kunye nenqanaba le-industrial chain chain. Namathela kwimixholo emibini yophuhliso: uphuhliso lohlaza kunye nokuveliswa okukrelekrele. Siza kugxila ekusombululeni iintlungu zamashishini amakhulu amathathu: ukulawula ukwandiswa kwamandla okuvelisa, ukukhuthaza ukugxilwa kwezoshishino, kunye nokuqinisekisa ukhuseleko lwezibonelelo. Qhubekeka ukukhuthaza ushishino lwentsimbi lwaseTshayina lwamazwe ngamazwe
Okwangoku, uqoqosho olukhulu lujongene nezine 'ukudlula uxinzelelo': okokuqala, nokuba lunokuphelisa ngempumelelo ukuxhomekeka kwi-real estate; okwesibini, ingaba iyakwazi ukususa ngokusisiseko isithintelo sokunciphisa imbuyekezo kwishishini (imveliso); okwesithathu, ingxaki yokusetyenziswa okunganelanga inokuthatha ixesha elide; Okwesine, umngeni onzima wangaphandle: isithintelo esivela kwinkqubo yangaphandle inokuphuculwa nangaliphi na ixesha.
'Impumelelo yokuphumelela' kufuneka yenze izinto ezintathu eziphambili: eyokuqala kukukhawulezisa ukwakhiwa kwendlela entsha yophuhliso (ukukhawulezisa ukufezekiswa kwenqanaba eliphezulu lezenzululwazi nobuchwepheshe kunye nokukhawulezisa ukwakhiwa kwenkqubo yemizi-mveliso yala maxesha); okwesibini kukugxila ekwandiseni imfuno yangaphakathi, ikakhulu ukwandisa ukusetyenziswa; okwesithathu kukumisa ngokuqinileyo i-bubble ye-real estate, kodwa ukukhawulezisa ukupheliswa kokuxhomekeka kwi-real estate. Wagxininisa ukuba unamandla amakhulu, ukukhula kwexesha elide kunye nokuqina okunamandla.
Ukujonga kwixesha elizayo, ukholelwa ukuba kufuneka sinamathele kukulungelelaniswa kwezinto eziphilayo phakathi kwemigaqo-nkqubo yexesha elifutshane kunye nemigaqo-nkqubo yexesha elide, sihlawule ingqalelo ngakumbi kwixesha elide, ukuguqula imo, ukulungelelanisa isakhiwo, ukuphucula umgangatho, ukwandisa ukusebenza kakuhle, 'ukukhuthaza ukuzinza kunye nenkqubela phambili', funa ukuzinza kwinkqubela phambili kunye nokunyuka, kunye nokusombulula ngempumelelo imingcipheko eqhubekayo kunye nokunyuka.
Ukuze simelane noxinzelelo oluphantsi lweshishini kunye nokugcina ukusebenza okuzinzile kweshishini, kufuneka someleze umsebenzi wethu kwiinkalo ezine: Okokuqala, silandele ngokungaguqukiyo umendo wophuhliso oluphezulu. Amashishini entsimbi kunye nentsimbi kufuneka athathe amanyathelo amatsha ngesiseko somsebenzi wokuqala kwaye abonise izenzo ezintsha, aguqule izibonelelo zezibonelelo zibe yinzuzo yoshishino, kwaye aguqule inzuzo yomntu ibe yinzuzo jikelele. Okwesibini, ukuqinisa ulungelelwaniso, ukunciphisa umthamo wangaphakathi, kwaye ngokungagungqiyo uthabathe indlela yokuzimela kweshishini kunye nophuhliso olulungelelanisiweyo. Amashishini aphezulu kushishino lwentsimbi kunye nentsimbi kufuneka adlale indima yokulinganisa, omeleze ukuzithiba kwishishini kunye nokulungelelaniswa kwemarike, ngokudibeneyo akhulise ukubonelela ngeemarike kunye nemfuno, kwaye azame ukufezekisa ukubonelela okuguquguqukayo. Okwesithathu, ukomeleza umthamo wenkonzo yesicwangciso sonikezelo lwesicwangciso, kunye nokwakha impendulo ekhawulezayo, ezinzileyo kunye nesebenzayo yokubonelela ngentsimbi. Okwesine, ukuqinisa ukuveliswa kwemizi-mveliso kunye nokuveliswa kwezinto ezintsha zenzululwazi kunye nezobuchwepheshe, kunye nokubambelela kwindlela eluhlaza, ukugcinwa kwamandla kunye nokukhuselwa kwendalo.
Wabiza amashishini esinyithi kunye nentsimbi ukuba aphendule ngokusebenzayo kwifowuni, ukukhuthaza ukuzimela kwezoshishino, ukunciphisa ukhuphiswano olungenasiphako kunye nokuveliswa kwe-hemorrhagic engabalulekanga, ukudibanisa ukhuphiswano oluphambili lweemveliso kunye nobugcisa obutsha, ukukhawulezisa ukuguqulwa kwisiphelo esiphezulu, esiluhlaza, esisebenzayo kunye nesilumko, kwaye sithathe ngokuqinileyo indlela yophuhliso oluphezulu.
Ukuphononongwa kweemarike zensimbi ngo-2023 kwatsho ukuba amaxabiso ensimbi yonyaka aqhubeka ewa ileli, izinto eziluhlaza zinamandla kunentsimbi, iinzuzo zoshishino kwi-low low.
Ukujonga phambili ku-2024, malunga nosetyenziso lwaphesheya, kulindeleke ukuba ukusetyenziswa kwentsimbi phesheya kuthobe, kushiye indawo yokuthumela ngaphandle kwe-China ilinganiselwe, kwaye ukuthunyelwa kwentsimbi kuzwelonke kwehle unyaka nonyaka.
Ngokuphathelele imeko yasekhaya, i-GDP yase-China kulindeleke ukuba ikhule nge-5.0% ngonyaka. Utyalo-mali kwii-asethi ezisisigxina lukhule nge-4.5%, uphuhliso lwezindlu nomhlaba nge-6%, ukwenziwa kwe-6.8% kunye neziseko zophuhliso nge-7.0%.
Ukusetyenziswa kwasekhaya, ukusetyenziswa kwentsimbi yaseTshayina kulindeleke ukuba kube tyaba unyaka nonyaka, ulwakhiwo oluhlukeneyo luyaqhubeka nokuphucula kunye nokulungelelanisa. Inguqu enkulu yeshishini isekhona ukubonelela, ukubonelela kugqiba inzuzo, kodwa kwakhona kumisela inqanaba lexabiso elipheleleyo lensimbi ngo-2024. Ngaphantsi kwenkxaso eyongeziweyo yemfuno yasekhaya nakwamanye amazwe, ukunciphisa ukubonelelwa okuphakathi kunokuphucula ngokuthe ngcembe ukusebenza kakuhle kweshishini.
Ngokumalunga nezinto ezikrwada, imveliso yentsimbi yehlabathi kulindeleke ukuba inyuke ngeetoni ezizigidi ezingama-62 ngonyaka, ukusetyenziswa kwanda nge-26 yezigidi zeetoni, unikezelo lwentsimbi lukhululekile kancinci; izinga lokukhula kokuveliswa kwamalahle okuphekela liyacotha kwaye unikezelo luhlala lukhululekile; imveliso yecoke iphezulu ngokuqhubekayo, ixabiso libuthathaka; unikezelo lwe-scrap luyanda ngokuphakathi kwaye ixabiso lihamba kakuhle.
Amaxabiso entsimbi ekrwada kulindeleke ukuba atshintshe phakathi kwe-$90 kunye ne-100 yeedola ngetoni nganye ngo-2024, isiphumo esifuna uqeqesho lwemveliso ngaphakathi kushishino. Ngokweemveliso ezigqityiweyo, intambo kulindeleke ukuba iqhube phakathi kwe-4300-4500 yuan / ton. Nangona i-real estate ibuthathaka, imfuno yeziseko zophuhliso ilungile, inkxaso yeendleko ibonakala, kwaye ukuhanjiswa kwentambo kunokuncipha, kwaye umahluko wekhoyili ngo-2024 kufuneka uguquguquke malunga ne-100 yuan / ton, ukuvuselela imfuno yasekhaya, kwaye inzuzo yentsimbi kufuneka inyuke nge-100 yuan / ton xa kuthelekiswa no-2023.
Ixabiso lentsimbi yentsimbi ayinanto yakwenza nokubonelela kunye nemfuno, kwaye kukho izinto ezintathu eziphambili: izinto zobugcisa, imali kunye nokulawula. Kwinsimbi, amaxabiso achaphazelekayo zezi zinto zilandelayo: iindleko aziyi kuwela kakhulu kunyaka ozayo; ukunyamezela kushishino olusezantsi kuye kwaphucuka xa kuthelekiswa nalo nyaka, inkomfa yomsebenzi wezoqoqosho icebise uluhlu lwemigaqo-nkqubo ukuzinzisa ukukhula kulo nyaka uzayo; ukuhla kweshishini kuya kukhokela imveliso yoshishino ukuzeyisa; kunye ne-Federal Reserve iya kuqalisa umgaqo-nkqubo wemali oxekethileyo.
Uqikelelo lwexabiso, indawo yokujonga ayibuhlungu, ayivuyi, iziko lexabiso liye lahamba kancinci. Kuqikelelwa ukuba ixabiso eliqhelekileyo le-rebar yi-3900 yuan / ton, kwaye uluhlu luyi-3500 yuan / ton-4400 yuan / ton. Ikhoyili eshushu kulindeleke ukuba inyuke nge-100 yuan / ton ngesiseko somsonto, kwaye umahluko wekhoyili uphantsi, ngakumbi ngenxa yokwanda kwemveliso yekhoyili eshushu. Ngokumalunga nezinto ezikrwada, iziko lexabiso lentsimbi ekrwada kulindeleke ukuba libe yi-120 yeedola zase-US / itoni, uluhlu lwamaxabiso kulindeleke ukuba lube yi-90-140 yeedola zase-US / iitoni, amalahle okupheka kulindeleke ukuba abe yi-1800-2400 yuan / ton, i-coke kulindeleke ukuba ibe yi-1900-2700 yuan / ton. Kwicala lenzuzo, umjikelezo wecala awukapheli, kwaye kunokwenzeka ukuba i-50% yeentsimbi zensimbi kulindeleke ukuba ilahlekelwe yimali kunyaka ozayo.
Uqikelelo lonyaka ozayo iziko lexabiso le-rebar ngo-3900 kufutshane, liphantsi nge-3750 ngeenxa zonke, liphezulu kwi-4500 ngeenxa zonke. Xa kuthelekiswa nalo nyaka, uluhlu lokuguquguquka kwexabiso luya kuba lubanzi kwaye lubanzi.
1. Isakhiwo sokusetyenziswa kwensimbi siye saphuculwa ngokuqhubekayo, umlinganiselo wokusetyenziswa kwensimbi kwishishini lokuvelisa uyaqhubeka nokukhula, kwaye imarike yensimbi yaseChina ibonise ukuqina okuqinileyo.
2. Ukusetyenziswa kwensimbi iyonke kuye kwafikelela kwincopho, ukuhla ngokupheleleyo kuyindlela engenakuphepheka. Ukusuka kwisantya ukuya kumgangatho, ukusuka kumthamo opheleleyo ukuya kwiindidi ezahlukeneyo, utshintsho kwingqwalasela luyaqhubeka.
3. Ukukhula okusebenzayo yimfuneko engenakuthintelwa kuphuhliso olukumgangatho ophezulu. Kuyimfuneko ukuba kuqwalaselwe ukukhawulezisa ukuqaliswa kwezithintelo zekhabhoni kunye nokuvavanya kwakhona ukusebenza 'kokuxhobisa' kolawulo.
4. Kungakhathaliseki ukuba mangaphi amaqhinga, ukukhuthaza ngamandla ukubuyiswa kwakhona kwensimbi esetyenzisiweyo kuhlala kukhetho lokuqala.
5. Iimpawu ezigqwesileyo zezinto zensimbi (iindleko zokusebenza kunye neempawu ezinokuphinda zisetyenziswe) zikude nokuphuhliswa ngokupheleleyo kwaye zisetyenziswe, kwaye indawo 'yokuphuculwa kwezinto kunye nokutshintshwa kwezinto' ayinasiphelo kwaye kukho indlela ende yokuhamba.
Wathi imboni yentsimbi kufuneka igxininise kumsebenzi osisiseko: ukuphucula umthamo wesiseko soshishino kunye nenqanaba le-industrial chain chain. Namathela kwimixholo emibini yophuhliso: uphuhliso lohlaza kunye nokuveliswa okukrelekrele. Siza kugxila ekusombululeni iintlungu zamashishini amakhulu amathathu: ukulawula ukwandiswa kwamandla okuvelisa, ukukhuthaza ukugxilwa kwezoshishino, kunye nokuqinisekisa ukhuseleko lwezibonelelo. Qhubekeka ukukhuthaza ushishino lwentsimbi lwaseTshayina lwamazwe ngamazwe.
