I-Global Steel Demand Outlook: Ukuzinza ngo-2025 kanye Nezitayela Zokukhula zika-2026

Izifunda ezahlukene kanye nezinkinga zezimakethe zithinta isidingo sensimbi emhlabeni wonke. Izici zezomnotho eziwusizo, njengezindleko zikahulumeni kanye nokwanda kokwakhiwa, zibalulekile ekukhuleni kwemikhiqizo yensimbi.

Okuthathwayo Okubalulekile

Isidingo sensimbi emhlabeni wonke sizohlala sizinzile kumathani ayizigidigidi eziyi-1.75 ngo-2025. Sizokhuphuka kancane sifinyelele kumathani ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane eziyi-1.773 ngo-2026. I-India kuzoba yizwe elikhulu lapho kukhula isidingo sensimbi. Isidingo sensimbi e-India sizokhuphuka ngo-9% ngo-2025 futhi futhi ngo-2026. Lokhu kungenxa yemiklamo eminingi yengqalasizinda emisha. Amazwe asathuthuka nawo azobona isidingo esikhulu sensimbi. Lokhu kuyiqiniso e-Afrika naseCentral naseNingizimu Melika. Isidingo sabo sensimbi sizokhula cishe ngo-5.5% unyaka ngamunye. Amazwe anothile angase abone isidingo sensimbi siba ngcono ngo-2026. Isidingo sawo sensimbi singase sikhuphuke ngo-1.5% njengoba echitha imali eningi kwingqalasizinda. Insimbi eningi kakhulu kanye nokuvikelwa kwezohwebo kuyizinkinga ezinkulu emakethe yensimbi. Lezi zinkinga zishintsha amanani nokuthi insimbi engakanani eyenziwa ezindaweni ezahlukene.

Amathrendi Esidingo Sensimbi Yomhlaba Wonke

2025 Ukuzinzisa Uhlolojikelele

Imakethe yensimbi yomhlaba wonke izohlala iqinile ngo-2025. I-World Steel Association ithi isidingo sensimbi sizoba ngamathani ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingu-1.75. Lokhu kucishe kufane nangonyaka odlule. Izinto eziningi zisiza ukugcina imakethe izinzile:

• Amazwe amakhulu achitha imali ezinhlelweni zomphakathi. Lokhu kusiza isidingo sensimbi.

• Umnotho wezwe uhlale uqinile. Lokhu kugcina isidingo sizinzile.

• Ochwepheshe abafana no-Alfonso Hidalgo de Calcerrada wase-UNESID banethemba. Bacabanga ukuthi imakethe ngeke yehle ngaphezulu ngo-2025.

Amazwe acebile azobona ukwehla okuncane kwesidingo sensimbi. Izokwehla cishe ngo-0.5% kusukela ngonyaka odlule. Amazwe ampofu azokhula ngokushesha. Bazobona isidingo sensimbi sikhuphuka ngo-3.4% ngo-2025. Lezi zinguquko zibonisa ukuthi izindawo ezihlukene ziyithinta kanjani imakethe yensimbi.

2026 Isibikezelo Sokukhula

Ngo-2026, imakethe yensimbi izokhula. Isibikezelo sithi isidingo sizokhuphuka ngo-1.3%. Izofinyelela kumathani ayizigidi eziyi-1,773. Ezinye izinto ezibalulekile zicindezela lokhu kukhula:

Isidingo sensimbi saseChina ngeke sehle ngokushesha. I-India, Vietnam, Egypt, neSaudi Arabia izokhula ngokushesha. I-India izobona isidingo sensimbi sikhuphuka cishe ngo-9% kukho kokubili u-2025 no-2026. I-United States izothola ukufunwa kwensimbi okwengeziwe emigwaqweni emisha nasezindlini. Isidingo sensimbi e-US singakhuphuka ngo-1.8%. I-Europe nayo izokwenza kangcono. Kuzobona ukwanda ngo-3.2% ngo-2026. Ukusetshenziswa kwemali eyengeziwe emigwaqweni nokuvikela kuzosiza.

Ithebula elingezansi libonisa ukuthi izifunda zizokwenza kanjani:

Lezi zindlela zikhombisa ukuthi imakethe yensimbi incike ekukhuleni nasezinkingeni ezindaweni ezahlukahlukene. Ukukhula emazweni ampofu kuzosiza ukulinganisa isidingo esihamba kancane emazweni acebile.

Ukuqhathanisa Ngokomlando

Ukubheka eminyakeni edlule kusisiza ukuba siqonde manje. Imakethe yensimbi izohlala cishe amathani ayizigidi eziyi-1,750 ngo-2025. Lokhu kuza ngemuva kokukhula kancane. Ngo-2026, imakethe izobuyela emuva kancane, ngokukhuphuka okungu-1.3%. Amazwe ampofu, ikakhulukazi angaphandle kweChina, azohola kulokhu kukhula. I-India neVietnam izosiza ukukhuphuka kwesidingo. I-Afrika ibone isidingo sensimbi sikhula ngo-5.5% unyaka ngamunye kusukela ngo-2023. IMelika Ephakathi neseNingizimu nayo izokhula ngo-5.5% ngo-2025. I-Argentina neBrazil izohola lokhu kukhula.

Amazwe acebile abe neminyaka emine yokuwa kwesidingo sensimbi. Ngo-2026 bazolulama. Bazobona ukwenyuka ngo-1.5%. Ukuchitha imali eyengeziwe emigwaqweni e-European Union nase-United States kuzosiza.

Qaphela: Imakethe yensimbi ibonisa kokubili isidingo esiqhubekayo nokukhula okusha. Umehluko phakathi kwezifunda kanye nokusetshenziswa kwemali emigwaqweni kubalulekile kulawa mathrendi.

Ukuhlaziywa Kwemakethe Yensimbi Yesifunda

I-China ifuna i-Outlook

I-China isabaluleke kakhulu emakethe yensimbi. Ngo-2025 no-2026, isidingo sensimbi sizokhuphuka kancane. Ukuthengiswa kwensimbi okuvela eChina kufanele kukhuphuke ngo-3-5% unyaka ngamunye. Ezinye izinto zisiza lokhu kwenzeke. Izintengo zempahla eluhlaza azishintshi kakhulu manje. Ubuchwepheshe bensimbi eluhlaza baba ngcono. Izinkinga zohwebo namanye amazwe nazo zibalulekile. I-China ichitha imali eningi emigwaqweni nasezakhiwo ezintsha. Ifuna ukwenza insimbi ngaphandle kokwengeza ikhabhoni eyengeziwe. I-China inethemba lokwenza insimbi engu-4% ngaphezulu ngonyaka. Lokhu kugxila ensimbi engcono kungase kushintshe izintengo zensimbi zomhlaba kanye nokuhlinzeka.

India Ukukhula Abashayeli

I-India ikhula ngokushesha ekudingeni insimbi. Ngo-2025, ukusetshenziswa kwensimbi yaseNdiya kuzokhuphuka ngo-8-9%. Insimbi eningi isetshenziselwa amaphrojekthi amakhulu njengemigwaqo namabhuloho. Ukwakha amakhaya kusebenzisa cishe u-25% kuya ku-30% wensimbi. Izimboni zisebenzisa i-15-20% yensimbi. Ochwepheshe bacabanga ukuthi i-India izosebenzisa insimbi engu-9% ngaphezulu ngonyaka ngo-2025 nango-2026. I-India ifuna ukwenza amathani ensimbi angu-300 million ngo-2030. Njengamanje, ingenza amathani ayizigidi ezingu-200. Ngakho, iNdiya idinga ukwakha izitshalo zensimbi ezengeziwe.

Ukubuyiselwa Kwezimakethe Ezithuthukisiwe

Amazwe anothile anemiphumela ehlukene. Intengo yensimbi izokwehla ngo-0.5% ngo-2025. Sekungunyaka wesine ilandelana yehla. Kodwa izinto zingase zibe ngcono maduze. I-European Union kanye ne-United Kingdom bangabona isidingo sensimbi sikhuphuka ngo-3.2% ngo-2026. I-United States ingase ibone ukwenyuka ngo-1.8% kokusetshenziswa kwensimbi. Sekukonke, amazwe acebile angabona ukululama okungu-1.5% ngo-2026 ngemuva kwezikhathi ezinzima.

Ukuthuthukisa Ukunwetshwa Kwezimakethe

Amazwe ampofu, ngaphandle kweChina, akhula ngokushesha ekusetshenzisweni kwensimbi. Ngo-2025, lezi zindawo zizosebenzisa insimbi engu-3.4%. Ngo-2026, ukukhula kuzoba ngama-4.7%. I-India neNingizimu-mpumalanga ye-Asia ihola kulokhu kukhula. I-India izosebenzisa insimbi engu-7% ngaphezulu ngo-2025. I-Southeast Asia izosebenzisa u-4% ngaphezulu. Imiklamo emikhulu yokwakha kanye nabantu abaningi abahlala emadolobheni benza lokhu kwenzeke.

Amazwe asathuthuka abaluleke kakhulu ekudingeni insimbi emhlabeni. Ukusebenzisa kwabo imali ezakhiweni ezintsha nasezimbonini kusiza ukulinganisela ukukhula okuhamba kancane emazweni acebile.

I-Global Steel Market Dynamics

Izinselele Zokuhlinzeka Ngokugcwele

Imakethe yensimbi yomhlaba wonke inensimbi eningi kakhulu. Amazwe amaningi enza insimbi engaphezu kwalokho edingekayo. I-China yenza insimbi eningi kakhulu. Ngenxa yokuthi i-China yenza okuningi, amanye amazwe athola insimbi eyengeziwe. Lokhu kwenza amanani ehle futhi inzuzo ibencane. Ezinye izinkampani eziseNingizimu-mpumalanga ye-Asia zaphelelwa yibhizinisi ngenxa yalokhu. Nazi izinkinga ezinkulu ngokugcwala ngokweqile:

• Ukuthunyelwa kwensimbi yaseShayina kwamanye amazwe kugcwalisa izimakethe futhi kwehlisa nenzuzo.

• Insimbi eningi isho ukwehla kwamanani kanye nezingozi zezikweletu ziyakhuphuka.

• Umthamo omningi ubangele ukwehla ngo-2.8% ekukhiqizeni kusukela ngoJanuwari kuya ku-Agasti 2025.

• Imithetho eqinile yokusimama iyashintsha ukuthi insimbi engakanani eyenziwe.

• Amazwe asebenzisa amanani entengo nemikhawulo, kodwa umnotho omusha uqhubeka wenza insimbi eyengeziwe.

Ithebula libonisa ukuthi umthamo uyithinta kanjani imakethe:

I-Protectionism Impact

Ohulumeni abaningi bazama ukuvikela izimboni zabo zensimbi. Izwe laseMelika linyuse amanani entengo ekuthengisweni kwensimbi kusuka ku-25% kuya ku-50%. Le mithetho isiza ukugcina imisebenzi yensimbi iphephile. I-India namanye amazwe bathola insimbi eyengeziwe eChina naseJapan. Lokhu kwenza amanani ehle futhi kulimaza abakhi bensimbi bendawo. I-US isebenzisa umthetho 'wokuncibilika nokuthulula' ukuze ilawule ukungena kwensimbi. Le mithetho ingenza izinto zibize kakhulu kumabhizinisi futhi ishintshe ukuthi ingakanani insimbi esetshenziswayo.

Ukushintsha Kokugeleza Kwezohwebo

Ukuhweba ngensimbi kushintsha ngokushesha. I-European Union isebenzisa i-Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism. Lo mthetho wenza kubize kakhulu ukuthumela insimbi kusuka eNingizimu-mpumalanga ye-Asia naseLatin America. Abathekelisa kumele basebenzise izindlela ezinekhabhoni ephansi ukuze bahlale bencintisana. I-US inamanani aphezulu ekhaya, ngakho ithenga insimbi eyengeziwe ehambisana nemithetho yayo. 'I-Plan Mexico' yase-Mexico yenza abantu bafune insimbi yokwakha eyengeziwe futhi bathenge kubahlinzeki abaseduze. I-Southeast Asia ithenga insimbi yekhwalithi ephezulu yokwakha. Izintela zaseMexico ziphusha ukuhwebelana eNingizimu Melika, okwenza imakethe yaseBrazil iqine. Imigwaqo emisha enyakatho yeCanada naseRussia ishintsha imizila yokuhweba nokuthi ingakanani insimbi edingekayo.

Ukwesekwa Kwezomnotho Nenqubomgomo

Izenzo eziwusizo zezomnotho nenqubomgomo zisekela imakethe yensimbi. I-India ikhulisa amandla ayo ngokusebenzisa imali emigwaqweni nasezinguqukweni. I-Afrika ikhulisa amandla ayo ngezinguquko zomnotho. I-EU ne-UK basebenzisa imali eningi kwezokuvikela nasemigwaqweni, okusiza ukusebenzisa insimbi eyengeziwe. I-US isebenzisa okuningi emigwaqweni nasezindlini, isiza imboni yayo yensimbi. Emhlabeni jikelele, uxhaso olungcono lwezezimali nomnotho oqinile kusiza isidingo sensimbi sikhuphuke ngo-2026.

Qaphela: Ingakanani insimbi eyenziwe, imithetho kahulumeni, kanye nokuhweba kuzonquma ikusasa lemakethe yensimbi.

Ukukhiqizwa Kwensimbi kanye ne-Outlook Yamanani

Amathrendi we-Raw Material

Insimbi idinga ukugeleza okuqhubekayo kwezinto ezingavuthiwe. Insimbi kanye nezinsimbi ezilahliwe kubaluleke kakhulu ngamanani. Uma kunzima ukuthola insimbi, amanani ensimbi ayakhuphuka. Ngo-2025 nango-2026, amanani ensimbi angakhuphuka ngo-5-8% ngoJanuwari. Lokhu kwenzeka ngoba izigayo zensimbi zithenga okuningi ngaphambi koNyaka Omusha WaseShayina. Izintengo zensimbi ezilahliwe zehlile muva nje njengoba bambalwa abantu abafuna insimbi ephelile. Izintengo eziphansi ze-scrap zisiza izigayo zensimbi manje, kodwa izinsalela ezincane zingaqoqwa kamuva. Uma zingekho izicucu ezanele, ukwenza insimbi kungabiza ngaphezulu. I-Nickel ye-Class 1 nayo iba nzima ukuyithola. Lokhu cishe kuzokwenza Ukukhokhiswa kwe-Alloy Surcharge yezinsimbi zensimbi engagqwali kukhuphuke ekuqaleni kuka-2026. Lezi zinguquko zibonisa ukuthi izinto zokusetshenziswa zibaluleke kakhulu ezintengo zensimbi kanye nomnotho womhlaba.

Izibikezelo Zentengo zika-2025-2026

Izintengo zensimbi zizohlala ziphezulu kunangaphambi kuka-2020, kodwa zizokwehla zenyuka. Ngo-Okthoba 2025, insimbi yesakhiwo ibiza u-$2,477.25 ngethani. NgoJanuwari 2026, izintengo zingase zehlele ku-$2,343.93 ngethani. Lokhu kwehle ngo-5.38% kusukela ngasekupheleni kuka-2025. Amanani nawo aphansi ngo-4.7% kunonyaka odlule. Ngisho nalokhu kwehla, amanani ngeke abuyele emazingeni aphansi akudala. Isidingo esinamandla sokwakha nemithetho emisha sizogcina amanani entengo ephezulu. Abathengi kufanele bazi ukuthi amanani azohlala ebangeni elithile. Ukulinda ukwehla kwamanani amakhulu kungase kungasebenzi, njengoba amadiphu angase abe mafushane. Ukuthenga insimbi ngezikhathi ezihlukene kungasiza ekulawuleni izindleko. Izintengo zensimbi zizokhombisa isidingo sezinto eziqinile kanye nemali ethe xaxa echithwa ezimbonini.

Imithelela Kubabambiqhaza

Izintengo zensimbi zibalulekile kubantu abaningi. Abakhiqizi bangase bathole imali eyengeziwe futhi bathole ukutshalwa kwezimali okwengeziwe, ikakhulukazi ngezintela. Abakhi nabakhi bezimoto bazokhokha kakhulu ngemikhiqizo yensimbi. Lokhu kungenza izimpahla zibiza kakhulu futhi kubangele ukwehla kwamandla emali. Izintela eziphezulu zisiza abenzi bensimbi bendawo ukuthi bakhule, kodwa kunezingozi uma isidingo singanyuki. Izinkampani ezinezivumelwano ezinhle zesikhathi eside zizokwenza kangcono. Ukwakha izikhungo zedatha ezengeziwe namaphrojekthi wamandla kunikeza amathuba amasha okukhula. Abenzi bensimbi kumele bahambisane nokuthi abantu badinga malini. Umnotho womhlaba kanye nemithetho yezimakethe ingase ivimbe amanani entengo ekwenyukeni kakhulu, kodwa amanani angashintshi asiza ngokuhlela nokutshalwa kwezimali.

Ithiphu: Hlela izindleko zensimbi eziphakeme futhi ungalindi ukwehla kwamanani amakhulu. Thenga insimbi ngezikhathi ezihlukene ukuze wehlise ubungozi futhi usebenzise izintengo eziqinile ukuze uzuze.

Isidingo sensimbi yomhlaba wonke sizohlala sinjalo ngo-2025. Kuzoba amathani ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingu-1.75. Ngo-2026, izokhuphuka ngo-1.3%. I-India nezinye izindawo ezikhulayo zizosiza lokhu kwenzeke. Izinguquko ezimakethe, imithetho kahulumeni, nezakhiwo ezintsha zibalulekile. Abaholi embonini bangafunda kulawa maqiniso:

Umshayeli ongukhiye	Ukuqonda
Ukuthuthukiswa Kwengqalasizinda	Amadolobha ezimakethe ezintsha adinga insimbi eyengeziwe yemigwaqo nezakhiwo.
I-Automotive Industry Evolution	Izimoto zikagesi nemithetho yokuphepha kusho ukuthi kudingeka insimbi ethuthuke kakhulu.
Ezokukhiqiza kanye Nokukhula Kwezimboni	Amafekthri amaningi nemisebenzi yokuthutha emuva ekhaya zisebenzisa insimbi eyengeziwe.
Ukuguqulwa Kwamandla Avuselelekayo	Amaphrojekthi omoya nelanga adinga insimbi eningi.
Izinqubomgomo Zikahulumeni	Izinhlelo zezwe nemithetho yamandla ahlanzekile yenza isidingo sensimbi sibe phezulu.

FAQ

Yiziphi izici ezithonya isidingo sensimbi emhlabeni wonke?

Izinto eziningi zithinta isidingo sensimbi. Ukwakha imigwaqo namabhuloho kubalulekile. Ohulumeni basebenzisa imali ukusiza umnotho uthuthuke. Ubuchwepheshe obusha nezinguquko ezimbonini nazo zibalulekile. Lezi zinto zinquma ukuthi ingakanani insimbi edingekayo unyaka ngamunye.

Isidingo sensimbi eYurophu siqhathaniswa kanjani nezinye izifunda?

Isidingo sensimbi eYurophu sikhula kancane kunasezindaweni ezisathuthuka. I-Europe idinga imigwaqo emisha kanye nezindleko zokuvikela ukuze ilulame. I-India neBrazil zisebenzisa insimbi eyengeziwe futhi zikhula ngokushesha.

Kungani amanani ensimbi eshintsha njalo?

Izintengo zensimbi ziyashintsha ngenxa yokutholakala nokufunwa. Izindleko zezinto ezingavuthiwe nazo zinendaba. Imithetho yezohwebo kanye nezintela kungenza amanani ehle noma ehle. Ukuthenga ngezikhathi ezithile nemicimbi yomhlaba kubangela izinguquko ezisheshayo zentengo.

Yiziphi izimboni ezisebenzisa insimbi kakhulu?

Ukwakha kusebenzisa insimbi eningi. Abenzi bezimoto nezimboni badinga insimbi nabo. Amaphrojekthi omoya nelanga asebenzisa insimbi emishinini yawo. Izikhungo zedatha zidinga insimbi yezakhiwo zazo.

Izinqubomgomo zikahulumeni zizithinta kanjani izimakethe zensimbi?

Ohulumeni babeka imithetho yokuvikela abakhi bensimbi bendawo. Amanani entengo kanye nama-quota ashintsha indlela insimbi ehamba ngayo phakathi kwamazwe. Le mithetho ingenza amanani ehle noma ehle. Ukuchitha imali emigwaqweni kusiza ukukhula kwesidingo sensimbi.